Guoxin Securities·2025-07-21 12:25Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector [2][6]. Core Views - The liquor sector is experiencing a valuation recovery, with some companies releasing mid-year performance forecasts that are expected to alleviate demand pressure. The overall sentiment in the liquor market is improving due to positive policy expectations, leading to a rebound in stock prices for major players [3][12]. - The beer and beverage segments are entering a peak season, with a focus on mid-year performance. Major beer companies are expected to maintain high profit growth due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [4][15]. - The report highlights three main investment themes in the liquor sector: resilient leaders like Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye; companies like Luzhou Laojiao that are showing signs of valuation recovery; and brands like Jinsiyuan and Yingjiagongjiu that have potential for market share growth [3][14]. Summary by Sections Liquor - The liquor sector's revenue for the first half of the year reached 331.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. However, production has decreased by 5.8% [3][12]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong anti-risk capabilities and those that are actively engaging in digital transformation [3][14]. Consumer Goods - The beer segment is expected to see significant profit growth, with Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer forecasting net profits to increase by 40% to 50% year-on-year [15][16]. - The snack food sector is under pressure, with companies like Ganyuan Food and Qiaqia Food predicting substantial declines in net profits due to high raw material costs and increased marketing expenses [17][18]. Seasonality and Market Trends - The report notes that the beverage industry is entering a peak consumption period, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [21][22]. - The dairy sector is anticipated to recover gradually, with policies stimulating demand and improving supply dynamics [20][21]. Key Data Tracking - The food and beverage sector saw a 1.02% increase in stock prices, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.33 percentage points during the week of July 14 to July 18, 2025 [22].