国投期货农产品日报-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Buy Recommendations: Soybean oil, Palm oil [4] - Hold Recommendations: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal, Rapeseed oil, Corn [3][6][7] - Sell Recommendations: None 2. Core Views - The overall market for agricultural products is influenced by factors such as weather, policies, and trade relations. Uncertainties in these aspects lead to a volatile market, and short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] - For soybean - related products, the end of the Sino - US tariff suspension period and US weather conditions add uncertainties, and the market is expected to be volatile [2][3][4] - In the palm oil market, policies and weather play important roles. With the long - term development trends of US and Indonesian biodiesel and the entry of palm oil into the production cycle in the fourth quarter, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4] - For rapeseed products, the market is affected by import policies and demand, and prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [6] - The corn market is mainly affected by auction results and supply in the circulation link, and futures may continue to trade at the bottom [7] - The pig market is influenced by policies and supply fundamentals. With sufficient future supply, industrial players can participate in short - selling hedging on rallies [8] - The egg market shows a seasonal rebound, but there are differences between near - term and far - term contracts due to supply and demand factors [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybeans are showing a volatile and strong trend. Northeast China and North China are expected to have more precipitation in the next 10 days, while US soybean - growing areas face high - temperature risks in the future 6 - 14 days [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The end of the Sino - US tariff suspension period has made the market focus on China's purchase of US soybeans. US soybean prices have rebounded, and the domestic oil mill crush rate is stable with increasing soybean meal inventory. The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile before the tariff and weather issues are clear [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil prices rose due to market expectations at the beginning of July, but there were signs of profit - taking after the new policy. US soybean - growing areas face high - temperature risks, and European high - temperature risks in August also need attention. The US soybean oil spot is strong, and the palm oil market shows different trends in different regions. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and short - term attention should be paid to weather and policies [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic oil mill operating rate has rebounded slightly, and inventories are basically the same as last week. Import policies are complex, and the rapeseed meal market is boosted by seasonal demand, while the rapeseed oil market follows the vegetable oil sector. Prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [6] Corn - The auction of imported US corn had a low成交 rate, and the domestic corn market has no major contradictions. Dalian corn futures may continue to trade at the bottom [7] Pig - The pig futures rose on Monday due to policies. The government has set a clear target for the sow inventory. With sufficient future supply, industrial players can participate in short - selling hedging on rallies [8] Egg - Egg prices are in a seasonal rebound, with small - sized eggs having greater price cuts and large - sized eggs rising. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness. The long - term egg price cycle has not reached the bottom [9]