黑色金属日报-20250721

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain strong, with the iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and ferrosilicon markets likely to follow the trend of steel in the short term, and all are affected by the "anti - involution" policy and market sentiment [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures continued to strengthen. Thread apparent demand decreased month - on - month, production continued to decline, and inventory slightly accumulated. Hot - rolled coil demand remained resilient, production continued to decline, and inventory slightly decreased [2] - Pig iron production increased and remained at a high level. Under the low - inventory pattern, the negative feedback pressure in the off - season was not significant. In June, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed down. Domestic demand remained weak overall, while exports remained relatively high [2] - Multiple departments called for "anti - involution", and the Yajiang project improved demand expectations. Market sentiment was optimistic, and industrial products at low levels all rose. The futures market is expected to remain strong [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures continued to rebound, and the basis narrowed at a low level recently. On the supply side, global iron ore shipments increased month - on - month this period, stronger than the same period last year. Shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions increased significantly, while shipments from Australia decreased [3] - China's port arrivals declined from a high level this period, and there was no obvious pressure on port inventory accumulation in the short term. On the demand side, steel mills had no motivation to cut production in the short term, and pig iron production rebounded more than expected last week [3] - At the macro level, the "anti - involution" and the upcoming important meeting boosted market sentiment, and the Yajiang project strengthened market expectations for future major projects. It is expected that iron ore will be strong in the short term [3] Coke - Coke prices rose significantly during the day. The second round of price increases for coking has been proposed, and coking profits are meager. Coking daily production slightly increased after continuous decline. Coke inventory decreased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness increased [4] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and downstream pig iron production remains at a high level in the off - season. The "anti - involution" currently has limited impact on the coke industry. The coke futures price is at a premium and is expected to continue to rise in the short term [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The output of coking coal mines slightly decreased, the spot auction market improved, transaction prices continued to rise, and terminal inventory increased [6] - Total coking coal inventory decreased month - on - month, and production - end inventory continued to decline significantly. It is likely to continue to destock in the short term. The "anti - involution" currently has limited impact on the coking coal industry. The coking coal futures price is at a premium and is expected to continue to rise in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices opened higher and then slightly adjusted. Due to continuous production cuts in the early stage, the inventory level decreased, the weekly production recovery rate was slow, and both futures and spot demand improved. It is judged that inventory will mainly continue to decline [7] - In the long - term, manganese ore inventory is gradually increasing, which exerts great pressure on prices. In the short - term, the current inventory level is low, and manganese mines' willingness to support prices has increased. Spot manganese ore prices have risen following the futures market. Affected by the "anti - involution", market expectations for demand - side policies have increased. Silicon manganese mainly follows the trend of thread, with a relatively small increase [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices opened higher. Pig iron production increased to over 242. Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal decreased slightly month - on - month, and secondary demand declined marginally. Overall demand was acceptable [8] - Ferrosilicon supply increased slightly, market trading volume was average, and on - balance inventory decreased fluctuantly. Affected by the "anti - involution", market expectations for demand - side policies have increased. Ferrosilicon mainly follows the trend of thread, with a relatively weak increase [8]