利率债市场周观察：股市上涨不是利率上行的充分条件

Group 1 - The report argues that an increase in the equity market does not necessarily lead to a rise in interest rates, indicating a potential for a simultaneous bull market in both stocks and bonds [5][8][15] - Historical patterns show that both scenarios of rising equity markets with either rising or falling interest rates have occurred, suggesting that the underlying reasons for stock market increases are crucial [9][11] - The current stock market rise is attributed to improved governance expectations and economic transformation, rather than a significant increase in household deposits moving into equities [11][13] Group 2 - The report highlights that the fixed income market is experiencing a high issuance of interest rate bonds, with an expected issuance of 940.8 billion yuan this week, indicating a robust supply environment [16][18] - Recent data shows a significant increase in reverse repos and a net injection of liquidity by the central bank, which has implications for bond market dynamics [23][24] - The report notes that the leverage ratio in the bond market has risen above seasonal averages, reflecting increased trading activity and potential adjustments in investor strategies [13][14]