中泰期货纸浆周报-20250721

Report Information - Report Date: July 21, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Pulp Weekly Report - Company: Zhongtai Futures Co., Ltd. - Analyst: Gao Ping [7][9][12] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp market is currently in a complex situation with a game between policy sentiment and weak fundamentals. The policy sentiment is upward, but the actual market situation is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5600 - 4800, but the policy orientation may cause the bottom to gradually shift upwards. It is recommended to hold spot and adopt strategies such as selling call options or accumulating put options to increase income when the price is high [12][16]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1 Pulp Overview - Supply - end: Domestic chemical mechanical pulp production increased significantly in the cycle due to the commissioning of new production capacity, and most of it is used by the supporting paper machines of major pulp mills. In June 2025, China's pulp import volume was 3.031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.3%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 18.578 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Affected by overseas shipping and domestic import seasonality, the expected arrivals in July and August are relatively stable, but the expected arrival of softwood pulp is still weak [8]. - Demand and Inventory - end: Downstream production is stable during the off - season, with new production capacity being put into operation, but terminal demand is limited, resulting in stable production but gradually decreasing operating rates and inventory tending to accumulate. Port inventory has resumed accumulation, suppressing market confidence. Warehouse receipt inventory has decreased as some paper mills are interested in purchasing cheap Russian softwood pulp, causing some warehouse receipts to be cancelled and flow to downstream factories, and some to be converted into general warehouse spot goods. New warehouse receipt registrations are insufficient, and the pressure on old warehouse receipts is acceptable. Downstream finished product inventory is in a state of shock and accumulation [9]. - Cost and Profit: Domestic pulp prices have rebounded, and the market acceptance is acceptable under relatively low prices due to the anti - involution policy. The spot price of imported pulp has increased, and the immediate import profit has rebounded. As the off - season approaches, the prices of finished products have gradually decreased, and the profit has also shown signs of weakening. Currently, the domestic raw material spot price provides support, and the profit of finished products has rebounded [14]. - Strategy Recommendation: The macro - level meeting has improved the sentiment in the commodity market, but the spot market is stable with weak trading volume. There is a game between the weak reality and the market sentiment, and the market is significantly affected by sentiment. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate upwards, but the increase is limited. Currently, the fundamentals have not improved significantly. It is necessary to observe whether the port inventory reduction continues and whether the spot trading volume improves. It is recommended to hold spot and adopt strategies such as selling call options or accumulating put options to increase income when the price is high [16]. Part 2 Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides a monthly balance sheet of pulp from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream production, imports, domestic production, total supply, pulp consumption, demand, and inventory data, as well as their cumulative and year - on - year changes [18]. Part 3 Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis: - Supply - Global Pulp Shipment Volume: Not detailed in the provided content. - Demand and Inventory - European Apparent Demand and Inventory: Not detailed in the provided content. - Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis: - Supply - end: - Pulp Import: The import volume of different types of pulp (softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, chemical mechanical pulp, etc.) and wood chips (softwood chips, hardwood chips) is analyzed, including monthly data, cumulative data, and year - on - year changes from 2022 to 2025 [42][47][73][80]. - Pulp Import Seasonality and Cumulative Data by Country: Analyzes the import seasonality and cumulative import volume and year - on - year changes of softwood pulp from different countries (Russia, the United States, Finland, Canada, Chile) [50][60]. - Demand - end: - Pulp Apparent Demand: Not detailed in the provided content. - Analysis of Pulp's Downstream Finished Paper: Analyzes the production, import, export, and apparent demand of different types of finished paper (toilet paper, offset paper, coated paper, white cardboard), as well as the planned construction and commissioning of new production capacity [91][100][118]. - Inventory - end: Analyzes the total pulp inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, port inventory, and inventory by port, including weekly data from 2022 to 2025 [144][148]. Part 4 Cost and Profit - Pulp Import Cost and Profit: Not detailed in the provided content. - Domestic Pulp Production Cost and Profit: Not detailed in the provided content. Part 5 Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - Pulp Outer - market Quotation: Analyzes the outer - market quotations of different pulp varieties (Silver Star, Russian softwood pulp, Goldfish, etc.), including price changes and expected trends [12]. - Seasonal Price and Spread of Different Pulp Varieties: Analyzes the seasonal price changes of different pulp varieties (Silver Star, Russian softwood pulp, Goldfish, Asia - Pacific Senbo, etc.) and the seasonal spread between them, as well as the basis between pulp varieties and futures contracts [170][175][177].