尿素产业风险管理日报-20250721

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Urea is in a situation with support below and suppression above. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the short - term, it may follow the overall strength of commodities. In the medium - term, with the gradual opening of the export channel, there may be a phased rebound, but the agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will continue to be under pressure in the second half of the year [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for urea in the monthly period is 1650 - 1950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 62.1%. For methanol, the price range is 2200 - 2400, volatility is 20.01%, and historical percentile is 51.2%. For polypropylene and plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with volatility of 10.56% and 15.24% respectively, and historical percentiles of 42.2% and 78.5% [3] 3.2 Urea Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about urea price drops, for a long - position inventory, to prevent inventory superposition losses, 25% of UR2509 can be sold at 1800 - 1950 to lock in profits. Also, 50% of UR2509P1850 can be bought at 15 - 20, and 50% of UR2509C1950 can be sold at 45 - 60 to prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [3] - Procurement Management: When the procurement standing inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position inventory, 50% of UR2509 can be bought at 1750 - 1900 to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs. 75% of UR2509P1750 can be sold at 20 - 25 to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote key industries to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity, driving the overall strength of commodities. Urea may follow this trend in the short - term. In the medium - term, with export提货 by traders, inventory is unlikely to accumulate significantly, and factory quotes are rising slightly, supporting the price. However, agricultural demand is weakening, and the fundamentals will be under pressure in the second half of the year [4] 3.4利多 and 利空 Interpretations - 利多: Urea exports have been confirmed. In a market with strong speculation, the futures are expected to show wide - range fluctuations, and the lower support has increased [4] - 利空: Domestic policies require factories to sell urea at low prices, which has a negative impact on the spot market sentiment [4]