【早间看点】ITS马棕7月前20日出口减少3.5%阿根廷24/25年度大豆产量料为5090万吨-20250721
Guo Fu Qi Huo·2025-07-21 13:06
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, and macro - economic news. It also covers international and domestic supply - demand situations for various agricultural products [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight prices and changes of various futures are presented, such as the closing price of BMD's October Malaysian palm oil at 4316.00 with a previous day's increase of 2.47%. Brent's September contract dropped 0.60% previously and 1.69% overnight [1]. - Currency exchange rates and their changes are also shown, like the US dollar index at 98.44 with a 0.20% decline [1]. 02 Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE's palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal futures in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE's 2509 palm oil in North China is 9000 with a basis of 100 and no change [2]. - Import soybean quotes include CNF premiums and CNF prices for different origins, such as Brazil's CNF premium of 260 cents per bushel and a CNF price of 473 dollars per ton [3]. 03 Important Fundamental Information -产区天气 - - US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - average temperatures and near - to above - normal precipitation from July 23 - 27. The Midwest will have an active rainfall system and rising temperatures, which is generally favorable for crops but may bring high - temperature stress to some areas [4][6]. - International Supply - Demand - - Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 decreased 3.5% compared to the same period last month. The KPK is discussing land conversion from rubber to palm oil for smallholders to obtain MSPO certification [8][9]. - If Indonesia implements the B50 biodiesel blending policy, domestic palm oil consumption may surge by about 3 million tons [10]. - Nigeria plans to stabilize global crude palm oil prices and has increased production to 1.5 million tons [11]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area is estimated to increase, and the production is expected to reach 50.9 million tons [12]. - Canadian rapeseed exports increased, and the commercial inventory is 1.2049 million tons as of July 13 [13]. - Germany's 2025 winter rapeseed production for vegetable oil and biodiesel is expected to increase by 7.1% [14]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose, with different types of ships having different price and profit changes [14]. - Domestic Supply - Demand - - On July 18, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 13% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased [15]. - China's palm oil imports in June increased year - on - year, while soybean oil imports decreased. Rapeseed and mustard oil imports increased [15]. - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 29th week was 2.3055 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.81% [15]. 04 Macro News - International News - - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in July was 61.8, higher than expected. US new - home starts and building permits in June also showed positive changes [18]. - The eurozone's May seasonally - adjusted current account surplus was 32.307 billion euros [18]. - Domestic News - - On July 18, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upward. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 10.28 billion yuan on that day and 120.11 billion yuan for the week [20]. 05 Capital Flow - On July 18, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 2.96 billion yuan, with a 2.187 billion yuan inflow in commodity futures and a 773 million yuan inflow in stock - index futures [23]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.