烧碱周报：宏观情绪偏暖，烧碱延续反弹-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of the non - ferrous metal industry, providing some support to the market. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the path of the Fed's interest rate cuts still needs to be observed [4]. - In the supply - demand aspect, the maintenance devices in the East China region are gradually resuming this week, with abundant supply. The off - season of non - aluminum demand continues, and the market lacks substantial positive drivers. After the price increase of liquid caustic soda in Shandong Province, downstream buyers are resistant to high prices, and the shipment slows down. After the previous maintenance devices resume production one after another, the supply increases [4]. - There is strong cost support below for caustic soda. The domestic "anti - involution" drives the collective strengthening of market sentiment. Attention should be paid to whether the spot price can be synchronized with the performance of futures. Once the futures price has a high premium over the spot price, be vigilant against the risk of decline [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Market - The price of Shandong liquid caustic soda rebounded, and the basis of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda widened [9][12]. - From July 11 - 17, 2025, in the chlor - alkali industry chain, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong dropped from 840 yuan/ton to 820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.44%; the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda dropped from 1370 yuan/ton to 1330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.01%; the price of 98% flake caustic soda in the northwest increased from 3030 yuan/ton to 3050 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66%; the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased from - 300 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton, an increase of 45.45%; the price of alumina in Shandong decreased from 3140 yuan/ton to 3130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% [18]. 3.1.2 Futures Market - The report presents the price trends of caustic soda futures' active contracts compared with soda ash, alumina, and PVC futures' active contracts, as well as the relationship between the number of caustic soda futures' warehouse receipts and the continuous closing price [16]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - Production and Operating Rate: From July 11 - 17, 2025, the average operating rate of China's sample enterprises with a caustic soda production capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.6%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. The operating rates in North China, East China, Northeast China, and South China increased to varying degrees, while that in Central China decreased. Longzhong estimates that the operating rate of caustic soda this week will be around 84.7%, and the weekly output will be around 829,600 tons [22]. - Enterprise Maintenance: The report lists the maintenance situations of multiple enterprises in different regions, including the maintenance capacity, maintenance start date, and expected restart date [23]. 3.2.2 Downstream - Alumina - As of July 17, 2025, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, and the operating production capacity was 93.2 million tons. The supply change of alumina was limited during the week. Some enterprises' roasting furnaces completed maintenance, while some were still under maintenance, resulting in a temporary supply shortage in some areas, which supported the price [25]. 3.2.3 Inventory - As of July 17, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a production capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 383,900 wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.56% and a year - on - year increase of 1.78%. The inventory ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 22.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.61%. Except for the Northeast and South China regions where the inventory ratio decreased month - on - month, the inventory ratios in North China, Central China, East China, Northwest China, and Southwest China increased month - on - month [30]. 3.2.4 Liquid Chlorine - As of July 17, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong first rose and then fell, with a weekly average price of - 407 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2%. As of July 18, 2025, China's PVC operating rate was 77.59%, a month - on - month increase of 0.62%. It is expected that the PVC operating rate this week will be 79.65%, and the overall supply will increase next week [34]. - During the week of July 11 - 17, 2025, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 130 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend [35].