海外市场周报：TACO交易临变-20250721

Global Market Performance - The global stock market showed mixed results last week, with the US indices displaying divergence; the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose while the Dow Jones experienced a slight pullback [3] - In Europe, the FTSE 100 and DAX indices increased, whereas the CAC40 index saw a minor decline [3] - The Asia-Pacific region also had mixed results, with the SENSEX30 index in India retreating [3] Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a moderate increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, marking a four-month high [3] - Core CPI rose by 0.23% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, slightly below expectations [3] - The impact of tariffs on specific product categories is becoming more pronounced, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [3] Stablecoin Legislation - On July 17, the US Congress passed three significant bills regarding stablecoin regulation, which were signed into law by President Trump [4] - The GENIUS Act mandates that stablecoin issuers must hold reserves in a 1:1 ratio with US dollars, enhancing the security of funds held by users [4] - The CLARITY Act delineates the regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, establishing a framework for digital assets linked to blockchain technology [6] - The Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing retail central bank digital currency without explicit Congressional authorization, ensuring that the future of digital dollars remains in the private sector [7] Market Implications of Legislation - The passage of these bills is expected to create a new dominance in the digital finance sector, reinforcing the US's position in the global cryptocurrency market [8] - By binding stablecoins closely to the US dollar, the legislation aims to strengthen the dollar's role in the international monetary system [8] - The demand for US Treasury bonds may diversify as stablecoin issuers are likely to purchase them, alleviating selling pressure and potentially lowering government borrowing costs [8] Market Strategy - Following recent highs in the US stock market, caution is advised due to potential volatility stemming from ongoing tariff negotiations and changing interest rate expectations [3] - The report suggests focusing on high-certainty interest rate trades and sectors with strong growth potential, such as nuclear power and semiconductors, as a strategy to navigate increased market fluctuations [3]