资金跟踪系列之三：两融活跃度触及阶段高位，北上与ETF再度净流出

Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to rise, with the degree of inversion in the China-US interest rate differential deepening, and inflation expectations rebounding [1][13] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally eased, while the domestic interbank funding situation tightened initially before easing, with the yield curve steepening [1][19] Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has rebounded, with most industry trading heat above the 80th percentile, particularly in sectors like computers, light industry, textiles, pharmaceuticals, communications, and machinery [2][26] - Major indices' volatility has decreased, with most industry volatilities below the 40th historical percentile [2][31] Group 3: Institutional Research - High research activity was noted in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, computers, communications, retail, and automotive [3][14] Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have raised net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with most sectors including non-ferrous metals, real estate, communications, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, machinery, building materials, light industry, electronics, transportation, electricity and utilities, retail, construction, steel, electric new energy, consumer services, and banking seeing upward revisions [3][4][19] - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025/2026 has increased across the A-share market [4][17] Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has increased, with overall net selling of A-shares; the buy/sell ratio in sectors like non-ferrous metals, communications, and computers has risen [4][5] - Northbound funds primarily net bought sectors such as military, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, while net selling was observed in computers, electronics, and media [4][33] Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has continued to rise, reaching the highest point since March of this year, with net purchases mainly in sectors like computers, machinery, and electronics [5][12] - The proportion of margin financing in sectors such as steel, communications, and home appliances has increased [5][38] Group 7: Fund Activity - Active equity funds have increased their positions, particularly in TMT, home appliances, and oil and petrochemicals, while reducing positions in pharmaceuticals, retail, and agriculture [6][45] - New equity fund establishment has significantly increased, with both active and passive equity fund sizes rising [6][50]