Report Title - The report is titled "Soda Ash and Glass Weekly Report - 2025.07.21" and is from the Research and Consulting Department of Zhongyuan Futures [1] Report Author - The author is Shen Wen, with a practice certificate number of F03117458 and an investment consulting number of Z0022654. Contact information includes an email (shenwen_qh@ccnew.com) and a phone number (0371 - 58620081) [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views Soda Ash - The short - term futures price of soda ash shows a relatively strong trend due to the significant impact of macro - policy expectations on the commodity market sentiment. The weekly production of soda ash has rebounded, and the inventory of soda ash plants has accumulated to a new high in the same period of previous years. The apparent demand has increased from a decline, but the combined daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has decreased. The daily melting volume of float glass is expected to rise, while the photovoltaic glass capacity still has a reduction expectation [5] Glass - Macro - policy expectations strongly boost the glass futures market, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate with a relatively strong trend. The supply of glass has limited changes, and the output is expected to increase as some previously ignited production lines start to produce. The futures price increase has stimulated the replenishment of middle and lower - stream enterprises, but the orders of deep - processing enterprises have not improved significantly, and the order days are still at a relatively low level year - on - year [6] Summary by Directory 01 Weekly View Summary 1.1 Soda Ash Weekly View - Supply: The plant operating rate is 84.10% (a week - on - week increase of 2.78%), with the ammonia - soda method at 87.70% (a week - on - week increase of 5.13%) and the combined - soda method at 73.93% (a week - on - week increase of 3.60%). The weekly production is 73.32 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.42 tons), with light soda ash production at 31.85 tons (an increase of 0.97 tons) and heavy soda ash production at 41.47 tons (an increase of 1.45 tons) [5] - Demand: The apparent demand for soda ash is 69.10 tons (an increase of 3.59 tons), with light soda ash at 32.23 tons (an increase of 0.45 tons) and heavy soda ash at 33.28 tons (an increase of 3.14 tons) [5] - Inventory: The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 190.56 tons (an increase of 2.16 tons), with light soda ash inventory at 78.3 tons (a decrease of 0.71 tons) and heavy soda ash inventory at 112.26 tons (an increase of 2.87 tons) [5] 1.2 Glass Weekly View - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass is 15.78 tons, a 0.38% decrease compared to the 10th. There are 296 glass production lines in China, with 223 in production and 73 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 8.90 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.21% [6] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 64.939 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 2.163 million heavy cases (a decrease of 3.22%) and a year - on - year increase of 0.29%. The inventory days are 27.9 days, a decrease of 1.0 day compared to the previous period [6] - Demand: As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.3 days, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.0% [6] 02 Variety Details Decomposition 2.1 Market Review - Spot Price - The domestic spot price of soda ash fluctuates weakly and stably. As of July 17, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in the central China region is 1200 yuan/ton, and the light soda ash is 1100 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton. In the northern China region, the heavy soda ash market price is 1300 yuan/ton, and the light soda ash is 1180 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 120 yuan/ton [11] - The main contract price of soda ash is consolidating at a high level. As of July 17, 2025, the basis of soda ash in the Shahe area is - 10 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week). The glass futures price fluctuates strongly, and the glass basis in the Shahe area is - 36 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton) [14] 2.1 Market Review - Spread - As of July 17, 2025, the 9 - 1 spread of soda ash is - 46 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton); the 9 - 1 spread of glass is - 76 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton); the glass - soda ash arbitrage spread is 133 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton) [19] 2.2 Fundamentals - Supply - The weekly production of soda ash is 73.32 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.42 tons), with light soda ash production at 31.85 tons (an increase of 0.97 tons) and heavy soda ash production at 41.47 tons (an increase of 1.45 tons). As the maintenance devices of soda ash plants resume production one after another, the supply of soda ash is expected to increase [25] - Some domestic soda ash enterprises are scheduled for maintenance. For example, Ningxia Risheng's production capacity has been reduced to 50% since July 15, 2025, and it plans to carry out maintenance for a month; Zhongyuan Chemical's third - phase is expected to be maintained for about 10 days starting from July 20; Xuzhou Fengcheng is expected to be maintained for 21 days starting from July 21; Gansu Jinchang is expected to be maintained for a month starting from July 26 [28] - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash this week is 84.10%, a week - on - week increase of 2.78%. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate is 87.70%, a week - on - week increase of 5.13%, and the combined - production capacity utilization rate is 73.93%, a week - on - week increase of 3.60% [34] 2.2 Fundamentals - Inventory - As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of soda ash enterprises is 190.56 tons (an increase of 2.16 tons), with light soda ash inventory at 78.3 tons (a decrease of 0.71 tons) and heavy soda ash inventory at 112.26 tons (an increase of 2.87 tons) [38] - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 64.939 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 2.163 million heavy cases (a decrease of 3.22%) and a year - on - year increase of 0.29%. The inventory days are 27.9 days, a decrease of 1.0 day compared to the previous period. As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.3 days, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.0% [49] 2.2 Fundamentals - Profit - As of July 17, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda method soda ash in China is - 83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the theoretical profit (double - ton) of combined - soda method soda ash is - 33 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton [52]
中原期货纯碱玻璃周报-20250721
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-21 14:02