Changjiang Securities·2025-07-21 14:17Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (2020.HK) is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - Anta's retail performance in Q2 2025 showed low single-digit growth for the Anta brand, while FILA brand experienced mid-single-digit growth, and other brands grew by 50%-55% year-on-year [2][6]. - The company is facing short-term operational pressure due to intensified competition and discounting, but the long-term outlook remains stable with expected healthy growth in revenue and net profit for H1 2025 [8]. - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 134 billion, 150 billion, and 166 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 11%, and 11% [8]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Anta's retail performance in Q2 2025 was slightly below expectations, primarily due to adjustments in offline franchise stores and pressure from the 618 sales event [8]. - FILA's performance met expectations, with stable discounts in offline channels and a slight increase in e-commerce discounts [8]. Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for Anta are 70,826 million in 2024, 77,975 million in 2025, 85,282 million in 2026, and 92,167 million in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 13.58%, 10.09%, 9.37%, and 8.07% respectively [10]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 13,420 million, showing a decrease of 13.95% compared to 2024, followed by increases of 11.47% and 10.93% in the subsequent years [10].