Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the risk appetite in the capital market has remained positive, with the prices of risk assets generally rising. Overseas, the impact of US tariffs and internal strife on the capital market has faded, while geopolitical turmoil has had little impact. US inflation data reflects the impact of tariffs, but the increase in core CPI is lower than expected, causing little disturbance to the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. Most global stock markets have fluctuated and ended up rising, the BDI index has soared, the US dollar has rebounded slightly, non - US currencies are under pressure, and commodities have shown mixed performance. In China, the "anti - involution" market continues. The A - share market has stabilized above 3,500 points, and the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas in the commodity market has been strengthened and spread. The domestic bond market has mostly declined, with a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, while stock indices have generally risen. The domestic commodity market has shown mixed performance, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 1.84% weekly, and 8 out of 10 commodity sub - indices ending up rising [6]. - The current macro - logical mainline for domestic commodity and stock market trading is the continuation of the anti - involution market. The second - quarter macro data shows that the overall economy is resilient but the marginal trend is weakening. Real estate is still a drag, exports face challenges, consumption is the main driver, and price depression is intensifying. The market anticipates policy support, which strengthens the trading logic of the anti - involution market. The upcoming release of the "Top Ten Industry Steady - Growth Plan" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project have further strengthened the anti - involution market. However, due to economic transformation requirements, the implementation of policies will focus on structural adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity. The actual amount of eliminated production capacity may be limited, and the market trend is expected to be volatile, with hot sectors and varieties rotating rapidly. In terms of investment strategies, it is not advisable to go against the trend during the fermentation of the anti - involution market, and risks should be controlled when the market is overly optimistic [7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Big - Asset Category - Overseas, the impact of US tariffs and internal strife on the capital market has become less significant, and geopolitical turmoil has had little impact. Most global stock markets have fluctuated and ended up rising, the BDI index has soared, the US dollar has rebounded slightly, non - US currencies are under pressure, and commodities have shown mixed performance. In China, the "anti - involution" market continues. The A - share market has stabilized above 3,500 points, and the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas in the commodity market has been strengthened and spread. The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project and the upcoming release of the Top Ten Industry Steady - Growth Plan have strengthened the anti - involution market, and domestic - priced commodities, especially industrial products, have seen a long - awaited general rise [11]. 2. Sector Express - The domestic bond market has mostly declined, with a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, while stock indices have generally risen. The domestic commodity market has shown mixed performance, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 1.84% weekly, and 8 out of 10 commodity sub - indices ending up rising. Except for the non - ferrous and non - metallic building materials sectors, which declined, other commodities rose. The oilseeds, coking coal, steel, and energy sectors led the gains, and the market's characteristics of strong expectations and weak reality, as well as the strength conversion between domestic and international - priced commodities, have been strengthened [16]. 3. Fund Flow - Last week, funds in the domestic commodity futures market showed a slight net inflow. The energy, precious metals, grains, oilseeds, non - metallic building materials, and soft commodity sectors saw significant fund inflows, while the non - ferrous and agricultural and sideline products sectors had significant outflows [19]. 4. Variety Performance - Most domestic commodity futures rose last week. Among them, lithium carbonate, shipping index, and industrial silicon led the gains, while LPG, Shanghai lead, and urea led the losses [24]. 5. Volatility Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index declined significantly, and the volatilities of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index also decreased. Most commodity sub - sectors saw a decline in volatility, with the precious metals, soft commodities, non - metallic building materials, and grain sectors experiencing a significant drop, while the energy and oilseeds sectors saw a significant increase [30]. 6. Data Tracking - Internationally, most major commodities ended up rising, the BDI index soared again, copper, soybeans, and silver rose, crude oil and corn fell, the gold price fluctuated and ended flat, and the gold - silver ratio declined. Domestically, the asphalt production rate was stable, real estate sales remained weak, freight rates declined slightly, and short - term capital interest rates rebounded and then fluctuated. In the US, bond yields rose slightly, the China - US interest rate spread was under pressure, inflation expectations rebounded significantly, financial conditions were loose, the US dollar rebounded and then fluctuated, and the RMB exchange rate was stable [32][53][69]. 7. Macro Logic - Stock indices have all risen, valuations have increased collectively, and the risk premium ERP is under pressure. Commodity price indices have fluctuated upwards, inflation expectations have rebounded, and both expectations and reality have risen. In the US, the yield curve of Treasury bonds has become steeper, the term spread is stable, and both real interest rates and the gold price are oscillating at high levels. The US high - frequency "recession indicator" shows a split trend, the impact of tariffs on the economy is not obvious, and the 10Y - 3M Treasury bond spread fluctuates around zero [37][45][61]. 8. Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations - The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5% in July is 93.6%, slightly lower than last week's 94.7%. The probability of an interest rate cut starting in September is not high, and the highest probability scenario is two 25 - basis - point cuts in October or December, totaling 50 basis points for the year [75]. 9. US CPI Data - In June, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, slightly higher than the market expectation of 2.6% and higher than May's 2.4%, marking the largest year - on - year increase since February. The month - on - month increase was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than May's 0.1%. After excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, accelerating from May's 0.1%. The year - on - year increase in core CPI was 2.9%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 3%. Some commodity prices have risen, indicating the impact of US tariff policies, while the decline in used and new car prices has hindered the rise of core CPI [83]. 10. China's First - Half Macro - Economic Data - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.7%, 5.3%, and 5.5% respectively. In the second quarter, the GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 1.1% quarter - on - quarter. The overall economy is resilient but the marginal trend is weakening, with real estate being a drag, exports facing challenges, and consumption driving growth [92]. 11. China's CPI and PPI Data - In June, China's CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, ending three consecutive months of decline, while the PPI decline widened to - 3.6%, remaining negative for 33 consecutive months. The continuous divergence between CPI and PPI reveals the complex structural roots of deflationary pressure in the Chinese economy. The decline in PPI is due to over - capacity, weak demand, and external shocks. The market anticipates policy support to break the deflationary spiral, which strengthens the trading logic of the anti - involution market [96][97]. 12. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's Plan - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of steady - growth plans for ten key industries, including steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. The plan also includes supporting key industrial provinces to play a leading role. The background for the plan is the challenges faced by the industrial economy, and the approach is to combine steady - growth and transformation. Steady - growth aims to consolidate the foundation, while transformation focuses on improving development quality and cultivating new growth drivers. The plan will also optimize the development environment [101][104]. 13. Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project - The Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project officially started on July 19, 2025, in Nyingchi, Tibet. With a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, it plans to build five cascade power stations with a total installed capacity of 60 million kilowatts and an estimated annual power generation of about 300 billion kilowatt - hours. The project is crucial for national energy security and achieving the "dual - carbon" goal, can drive regional development, create employment opportunities, and enhance geopolitical influence. Its commencement, together with the upcoming industry plan, has strengthened the anti - involution market [108][110][111]. 14. This Week's Focus - Monday (July 21): China's 1 - year/5 - year loan prime rates, Japanese stock market closed. Tuesday (July 22): ECB releases bank lending survey report, Fed Chair Powell and Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speak at a large - bank capital framework review meeting. Wednesday (July 23): Eurozone consumer confidence index for July, Trump may give a speech on artificial intelligence. Thursday (July 24): ECB announces interest rate decision and holds a press conference by President Lagarde, Eurozone PMI. Friday (July 25): Tokyo CPI for July in Japan, Russian central bank announces interest rate decision [115].
冠通期货宏观与大宗商品周报-20250721
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-07-21 14:16