冠通期货铜周度策略展望-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - Demand: As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.3635 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,800 tons or 6.30%. The downstream is in a relative off - season. Although the premium strengthened after the price decline, the trading sentiment remained weak. The output of terminal industrial products such as air conditioners decreased month - on - month. Downstream buyers followed the market on a need - to - basis, and market sentiment was cautious [7]. - Macro: US CPI and PPI data slightly exceeded expectations, and inflation data was mild. The decision of the Fed to cut interest rates is highly uncertain. The probability of a rate cut in July remains unclear, but the market generally believes it is low. The US dollar strengthened this week, suppressing the prices in the non - ferrous market. Copper tariffs may be officially implemented on August 1st. In addition to refined copper, copper products may also be subject to tariffs. On July 18th, the State Council Information Office announced a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non - ferrous metals, focusing on both supply and demand [8]. - Supply: As of July 18, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee was - $43.16 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.31 cents per pound. Both fees have stabilized and rebounded this week. One smelting enterprise has a maintenance plan in July, involving a refining capacity of 150,000 tons, which has a limited impact on refined copper production. SMM expects the domestic electrolytic copper output in July to increase by 15,500 tons month - on - month, an increase of 1.37%. In the international market, Peruvian protesters lifted the blockade, and the copper transportation and export channels that had been blocked for more than two weeks have resumed [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Situation - Macro Information - US CPI in June was 2.7% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 2.4%. Core CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 2.8%. CPI was 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations; core CPI was 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3%. PPI in June increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.6%. Core PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 3% [13]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly. The weekly high was 78,590 yuan/ton, the low was 77,700 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 1.13%, and the interval decline was - 0.03% [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Situation - Copper Industry Disturbances - Vedanta Resources' Zambian subsidiary Konkola Copper Mines announced on July 16th that it will shut down and transform its smelter to improve capacity efficiency, which is a key measure to fulfill its $1.2 billion five - year investment commitment. - The world's largest cable manufacturer, Prysmian SpA, supports the Trump administration's planned 50% copper import tariff, believing it will strengthen the US domestic supply chain, although costs will be passed on to end - users [21]. 3.4 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of July 21st, the average spot premium in East China was 180 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 20 yuan/ton. The social inventory of copper was low. After the copper price declined, spot circulation was smooth, and the spot premium strengthened [27]. 3.5 LME Copper Spread Structure - As of July 18th, the weekly change of LME copper was 0.83%, closing at $9,720 per ton. After the copper tariff was implemented, the LME copper spot premium weakened significantly. Currently, LME copper is at a discount to futures, mainly due to the sufficient supply of market - available copper and the weakening of spot prices [32]. 3.6 Copper Concentrate Port Data - Inventory - As of July 18th, the copper concentrate inventory at 7 major domestic ports decreased by 32,000 tons to 457,000 tons this week. The copper concentrate inventory continued to decline and is currently at an absolute low level in the same period over the years. In May, China imported about 2.4 million tons of copper concentrate, a month - on - month decrease of 18.09% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, slightly lower than the average monthly import volume of 2.485 million tons from January to May 2025 [37]. 3.7 Smelter Processing Fees - TC/RC - As of July 18, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee was - $43.16 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.31 cents per pound. Both fees have stabilized and rebounded this week. One smelting enterprise has a maintenance plan in July, involving a refining capacity of 150,000 tons, which has a limited impact on refined copper production [43]. 3.8 Scrap Copper - Refined - Scrap Spread - As of July 18, 2025, the refined - scrap spread in the mainstream areas was 827 yuan/ton. The weekly spread strengthened, while the monthly spread weakened. Currently, the refined - scrap spread is at a low level, the substitution advantage of scrap copper is poor, the scrap copper rod production start - up rate increased slightly, and the scrap copper procurement sentiment was low [50]. 3.9 Inventory Information - COMEX - As of July 18th, the COMEX copper inventory was 242,800 short tons, and it increased by 2,379 short tons in the past week, a change of 0.02%. As the copper tariff implementation on August 1st approaches, the rush - to - buy copper sentiment is fading, and the inventory accumulation speed in the US has slowed down. As of July 18th, the LME copper inventory was 122,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.02%. Since the copper tariff was implemented in early July, the LME copper inventory has rebounded from a low level, suppressing the LME copper price [56]. 3.10 Inventory Information - SHFE - As of July 18th, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 38,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from last week, a change of - 16.73%, and a decrease of 6,600 tons from last month, a change of - 15.00%. After the 50% copper tariff was implemented, the export channels tightened, and the domestic copper inventory increased significantly. In the past two days, it has decreased slightly due to new spot purchases after the price decline [60]. 3.11 Inventory Information - Bonded Area - As of July 17th, the cumulative copper spot inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 73,900 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the 10th and a decrease of 800 tons from the 14th. The inventory in the Shanghai bonded area was 69,200 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the 10th and unchanged from the 14th. The inventory in the Guangdong bonded area was 5,500 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the 10th and the 14th. The bonded area inventory showed a downward trend. Although there were still smelter export goods entering the warehouse this week, some warehouses also had goods shipped out for export, resulting in a decrease in inventory [63]. 3.12 Refined Copper Monthly Imports and Exports - In June 2025, China exported 154,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 33.8%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 743,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 464,000 tons. From January to June, China imported 2.633 million tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. In June, China imported 337,000 tons of refined copper, a month - on - month increase of 44,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 92,300 tons. Exports of refined copper were 79,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 49.92% [68]. 3.13 Downstream Demand - Copper Rod: The output of copper rods continued to decline slightly. The market acceptance was low, especially due to insufficient domestic raw material supply and upstream suppliers hoarding goods. In July, the off - season demand affected copper rod production and sales. - Copper Foil: The price of copper foil fluctuated. The market supply and demand were weak this week, and the downstream market was not optimistic, with general support from the supply - demand side. - Copper Tube: The output of copper tubes decreased significantly due to the shrinking long - term orders from downstream. Large enterprises had a more prominent production cut due to their high previous - period base, while small and medium - sized enterprises had a relatively gentle decline due to capacity limitations [73]. 3.14 Downstream End - Users - As of the end of May, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.08 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 56.9%, and wind power installed capacity was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 23.1%. - In June 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 163.296 million units, a cumulative increase of 5.5% [78].