Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the overall non - ferrous metals, macro uncertainties remain high. Domestic policies boost the entire non - ferrous metals market in the short term, and prices are expected to run strongly in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of news and downstream off - season conditions [9][10] - For aluminum, the short - term domestic macro situation significantly boosts the alumina price. Although the overall supply of alumina is relatively loose, the spot price in the southwest region is supported. The alumina spot price is expected to gradually peak, and attention should be paid to subsequent arrivals [9] - For zinc, domestic policies boost short - term prices, but medium - to - long - term supply increases still put pressure on the upper limit. Attention should be paid to the development of news [12][13] - For tin, it shows a short - term oscillatory and strong trend, but the downward pressure increases in the medium term [15] Summary by Directory 01 Non - ferrous Weekly Market Review - Futures and Spot Prices: From July 11 to July 18, 2025, the closing prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel futures main contracts decreased, with weekly declines of 0.03%, 0.89%, 0.38%, and 0.73% respectively; the tin futures main contract price increased by 0.23%. Spot prices of copper, zinc, tin, and nickel decreased, with weekly declines of 0.04%, 0.34%, 0.28%, and 0.60% respectively; the aluminum spot price remained unchanged [7] 02 This Week's Non - ferrous Market Forecast Aluminum - Logic: Overseas tariff policies and personnel change rumors make risk assets cautious, while domestic "anti - involution" policies drive up industrial metals. Domestically, short - term macro factors boost alumina prices. Demand in the southwest region increases due to upcoming electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects, and supply may decrease due to upcoming maintenance. Nationally, alumina supply is relatively loose, and the increase in electrolytic aluminum plant inventories may put pressure on the alumina spot price [9] - Viewpoint: Prices are expected to run strongly in the short term, and follow - up attention should be paid to news and downstream off - season conditions [10] - Follow - up Concerns: Geopolitical crisis development, macro policy implementation, supply increase, and consumption release [11] Zinc - Logic: Domestic zinc ore processing fees remain stable, and imported zinc ore processing fees increase. The galvanizing start - up rate rises, and zinc ingot inventories increase. The die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreases, raw material inventories slightly increase, and finished product inventories decrease. Domestic inventories decrease overall [12] - Viewpoint: Domestic policies boost short - term prices, but medium - to - long - term supply increases put pressure on the upper limit. Attention should be paid to the development of news [13] - Follow - up Concerns: Macro policy implementation, mine production release, and consumption release [14] Tin - Logic: The resumption of production in Myanmar is slow, resulting in a shortage of raw materials for domestic smelters. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and orders in various sectors decline. Tin prices are supported at the bottom but face pressure at the top. An increase in supply may put pressure on prices [15] - Viewpoint: Short - term oscillatory and strong, with increasing downward pressure in the medium term [15] - Follow - up Concerns: Resumption of production in Congo (Kinshasa), Myanmar, and Malaysia; trade policies of various countries [15] 03 Variety Data Aluminum - Bauxite: Domestic high - grade bauxite prices in Henan remain unchanged week - on - week; domestic low - grade bauxite prices in Henan remain unchanged week - on - week; imported bauxite average prices decrease week - on - week. The port arrival volume increases week - on - week, and the departure volume decreases week - on - week [19][23] - Alumina: Domestic prices in Henan increase week - on - week, the full cost decreases week - on - week, and the profit in Shanxi increases week - on - week [26] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The total cost increases week - on - week, and the regional price difference decreases week - on - week. The start - up rates of some products change, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in different regions and forms shows different trends [28][32][38] - Spot and Basis: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum and SMM A00 aluminum in Foshan increases week - on - week, and the monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum shows different changes [44][47][48] Zinc - Zinc Concentrate: Domestic zinc concentrate prices decrease week - on - week, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remain unchanged week - on - week, and imported zinc concentrate processing fees increase week - on - week. Enterprise production profits decrease week - on - week, import losses decrease week - on - week, and imported zinc concentrate inventories remain unchanged week - on - week [55][58] - Refined Zinc: Social inventories of zinc ingots increase week - on - week, bonded area inventories remain unchanged week - on - week, and inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME increase week - on - week [61] - Galvanizing: Production decreases week - on - week, the start - up rate increases week - on - week, raw material inventories increase week - on - week, and finished product inventories increase week - on - week [64] - Basis and Monthly Spread: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreases week - on - week, and the monthly spread of Shanghai zinc increases week - on - week [67][71] Tin - Refined Tin: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increases week - on - week, and the combined start - up rate also increases week - on - week [75] - Tin Ingot Inventory: SHFE tin ingot inventories and Chinese regional social inventories of tin ingots increase week - on - week [78] - Tin Concentrate Processing Fees: Processing fees in different regions remain unchanged week - on - week [80] - Import Profit and Loss and Spot Price: The import profit and loss level of tin ore increases week - on - week, and the average spot prices of tin concentrates in different regions decrease week - on - week [81][86]
华宝期货有色金属周报-20250721
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-07-21 14:11