白糖周报：加工糖压力加大，郑糖可逢高空配-20250721

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View The international sugar market has entered the accelerated production period of the new crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil. The UNICA bi - weekly production data will be the key variable guiding market sentiment. The domestic sugar market is affected by multiple factors. Although there is short - term upward momentum due to the positive macro - atmosphere, the 09 contract is expected to decline from a high level later due to factors such as a significant drop in demand, potential continuous import volume increase, and strong industrial hedging forces [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Core Points and Strategies - Supply: As of the end of May 2025, the total sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season in China was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. In the central - southern region of Brazil, the cumulative crushing volume decreased by 14.06% year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production decreased by 14.25% year - on - year. The impact on price is considered neutral [9]. - Demand: Currently, the price of processed sugar is stable. Yunnan sugar has a cost - performance advantage over processed sugar and has better transactions than Guangxi sugar, but the overall market transaction is average, with a downward impact on price [9]. - Inventory: As of the end of May 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons. As of late May, the inventory in third - party warehouses in Guangxi was about 1.38 million tons, slightly higher than the average of the past five years. As of July 18, the total number of registered sugar warrants decreased compared to last week, with a downward impact on price [9]. - Warehouse Receipts: The impact on price is considered neutral [9]. - Basis: The quotes of sugar - making groups in Guangxi and Yunnan have changed slightly, and the quotes of processed sugar factories are stable. The market maintains a demand - based procurement rhythm, with a neutral impact on price [9]. - Profit: The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil has increased slightly, and the out - of - quota import profit remains flat, with a downward impact on price [9]. - Macro: There are expectations of China's CPI and PPI bottoming out. The market anticipates an increase in incremental policies, especially as the end - of - year policy - making meetings approach, which may drive the market up, with an upward impact on price [9]. - Strategy: Gradually arrange 09 short positions at high prices. Although the domestic market may still have upward momentum in the short - term, the 09 contract is expected to decline from a high level later [9]. 3.2 This Week's Sugar Market News - Brazil's Production Data: In the second half of June, in the central - southern region of Brazil, the sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 12.86% year - on - year, and the sugar production decreased by 12.98% year - on - year. From the start of the 2025/26 crushing season to the second half of June, the cumulative crushing volume decreased by 14.06% year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production decreased by 14.25% year - on - year [14]. - Sugar Use in Beverages: Trump claimed that Coca - Cola would use sucrose in its US - market beverages, and Coca - Cola thanked him and promised to share more details. PepsiCo said it would use sucrose if consumers demand it [15]. 3.3 Weekly Sugar Data - Domestic Production: In the 2024 - 2025 period, the domestic sugar production was 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.03%, slightly lower than expected [20]. - Domestic Sales: As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales were 7.3834 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.34%, and the cumulative sales rate was 74.11%. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.07%, and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69% [24][27]. - Brazilian Exports and Domestic Imports: The report mentions relevant data sources but does not elaborate on specific data [30]. - Imports of Domestic Substitute Syrups and Premixed Powders: In May, the total import of syrups and premixed powders was 64,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 150,700 tons. From January to May, the total import was 346,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 385,800 tons [34]. - Out - of - Quota Import Cost: The out - of - quota import cost increased slightly this week [38]. - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: As of July 18, the total number of registered sugar warrants was 21,477, a decrease from last week's 22,850 [43].