Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Domestic refined nickel supply is ample, with continuous accumulation of nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports. On the demand side, the stainless - steel industry's demand is weak due to the sluggish real - estate market, and export tariff policies further suppress demand. In the short term, the fundamentals are unlikely to change significantly, and the price of Shanghai nickel may maintain a weak and volatile pattern [10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview and Market Review 1.1 Daily Market Overall Performance - On July 17, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai nickel contract 2508 was 119,700 yuan/ton, the highest price during the session was 120,170 yuan/ton, the lowest was 119,270 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 119,880 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan/ton or 0.6% [2] 1.2 Futures Market Data | Contract Name | Closing Price | Change | Change % | Trading Volume | Amplitude % | Open Interest | Daily Increase in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel 2508 | 119,880 | -720 | -0.60 | 85,829 | 0.75 | 53,426 | -702 | | Shanghai Nickel 2509 | 119,970 | -740 | -0.61 | 56,494 | 0.74 | 74,948 | 3147 | [5] 1.3 Spot Market Data - On July 17, the average spot price of electrolytic nickel was 120,450 yuan/ton, down 1650 yuan/ton from the previous day; the average spot price of Jinchuan nickel was 121,500 yuan/ton, down 1600 yuan/ton; the average spot price of imported nickel was 119,800 yuan/ton, down 1650 yuan/ton [6] Influence Factor Analysis - News: In June, the US PPI year - on - year dropped to 2.3% (lower than expected), and Fed Governor Waller hinted at a possible rate cut in July. The US dollar index rose slightly by 0.49% to 98.77, exerting slight pressure on non - ferrous metals. - Supply: The rainy season in the Philippines has intensified the shortage of nickel ore, but imported ore from Indonesia has filled the gap, and ore prices have slightly declined. In July, the domestic refined nickel production plan increased by 1.25% month - on - month to 32,000 tons, with supply remaining at a high level. - Demand: Affected by the sluggish real - estate market, the overall demand of the stainless - steel industry is weak, with high inventory. Steel mills have low willingness to purchase nickel - iron. The export tariff policy has further suppressed the export demand of stainless - steel products, affecting the overall market performance [9]
沪镍期货日报-20250721
Guo Jin Qi Huo·2025-07-21 14:10