有色金属日报-20250722

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is positive due to the expected Fed rate cuts and the upcoming release of growth - stabilizing plans for key industries in China. However, different metals have different price trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals [1][3]. - For copper, the price rebound may be limited due to the approaching US copper tariff implementation time and the current off - season for downstream demand [1]. - Aluminum prices may continue to rise driven by low inventory and positive sentiment, but are expected to follow the general trend as the inventory is likely to accumulate [3]. - Lead prices are expected to be weak as the supply is relatively loose and the consumption expectation is suppressed [4]. - Zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the long - term but may show a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend [6]. - Tin's overall fundamentals are weak due to the expected increase in supply from Myanmar's复产 and weak demand [7]. - Nickel prices are expected to decline as the demand is weak and the mine price is likely to continue to fall [8]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term suggestion is to observe cautiously as the fundamentals' expectation is optimistic [10]. - Alumina prices may be strong in the short - term, but the over - capacity pattern may remain this year, and short - term observation is recommended [13]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to rise slightly in the short - term due to favorable policies [15]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices may rise slightly, but it is difficult for continuous price increases [17]. Summary by Metal Types Copper - Price: LME copper rose 0.74% to $9867/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79770 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 100 tons to 122075 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased by 25,000 tons [1]. - Supply - demand: Raw material supply is tight, and downstream is in the off - season. The US copper tariff implementation time approaching may put downward pressure on prices [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum rose 0.11% to $2641/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20860 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 4000 tons to 434,000 tons, and domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory increased by 6000 tons [3]. - Supply - demand: Low domestic inventory, but the inventory is expected to accumulate due to the off - season and weak export demand [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index rose 0.87% to 16982 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2008.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly decreased, and LME lead inventory was 268,400 tons [4]. - Supply - demand: Supply is relatively loose, and the consumption expectation is suppressed by the anti - dumping tariff in the Middle East [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index rose 2.79% to 22906 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2845/ton [6]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly decreased, and LME zinc inventory was 119,100 tons [6]. - Supply - demand: The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the short - term, the market sentiment is positive [6]. Tin - Price: SHFE tin oscillated upward [7]. - Inventory: No specific inventory data provided. - Supply - demand: Supply is low, but the expected increase in supply from Myanmar and weak demand make the fundamentals weak [7]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices were strong on Monday [8]. - Inventory: No specific inventory change data provided. - Supply - demand: The demand is weak, and the mine price is expected to continue to fall, driving down the industry chain prices [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC spot index rose 4.56%, and the LC2509 contract rose 1.89% [10]. - Inventory: No relevant inventory information provided. - Supply - demand: The supply reduction is limited, and the fundamentals' expectation is optimistic [10]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 7.6% to 3357 yuan/ton [13]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipt was 6900 tons, remaining unchanged [13]. - Supply - demand: The mine price is expected to strengthen, and the "eliminating backward production capacity" policy expectation is increasing, but the over - capacity pattern may remain [13]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless - steel main contract rose 1.41% to 12905 yuan/ton [15]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased by 1.69% to 1.1478 million tons [15]. - Supply - demand: The supply - side expectation has improved due to favorable policies, and the market sentiment is optimistic [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 rose 200 yuan/ton [17]. - Inventory: The inventory in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 30 tons to 28,700 tons [17]. - Supply - demand: The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply - demand is weak, but the cost support is strengthening [17].