五矿期货农产品早报-20250722

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean and meal market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean import cost may be difficult to decline before the substantial improvement of Sino - US soybean trade. The domestic soybean meal market is multi - faceted, and trading strategies should be adjusted according to different price levels and policy developments [3][5]. - The palm oil market is affected by factors such as the US biodiesel policy and the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited by factors like annual - level production increase expectations and high production in palm - producing areas. It is expected to fluctuate [9]. - The domestic sugar market may face increased import supply pressure in the second half of the year. If the external market price does not rebound significantly, the domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. - The cotton market has potential negative factors such as the possible issuance of sliding - scale import quotas from July to August, and the downstream consumption is average [15]. - The egg market is in a state of short - term oscillation. For post - festival contracts, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound [18]. - The pig market has limited short - term supply increase, and the 09 contract can be considered for buying at low prices. For off - season contracts such as 11, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound [21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - Important Information: On Monday, the US soybean night session declined, while the US soybean oil rose. The good old - crop sales and biodiesel policy support demand, but the good North American weather limits the upside. The domestic soybean meal spot price increased slightly, with good trading volume. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is close to 1 million tons, and the port soybean inventory is around 8 million tons. The buying of ships after September is relatively scarce. The US soybean production area has less rainfall and higher temperatures in the next two weeks, and the Brazilian premium has stabilized after a slight decline [3]. - Trading Strategy: The external soybean import cost fluctuates, and the overall supply of soybeans or protein is still in surplus. The domestic soybean meal market is multi - faceted. It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [5]. Oils - Important Information: The high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil shows different trends in different periods. The production in July increased compared to the previous period. The total inventory of vegetable oils in Indian ports increased significantly in half a month. The domestic palm oil declined on Monday, and the net long positions of foreign capital in the three major oils began to decline. The EPA policy is beneficial, but there are still negative factors in the oil market. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7]. - Trading Strategy: The optimistic sentiment in the commodity market promotes the continuous rise of palm oil. The US biodiesel policy supports the oil price center. If the demand countries maintain normal imports and the production in palm - producing areas is at a neutral level from July to September, the inventory in the producing areas may remain stable, and there may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upside is limited. It is expected to fluctuate [9]. Sugar - Important Information: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. The spot price of sugar in different regions had different changes. The import volume of sugar in June 2025 increased year - on - year, but the cumulative import volume from January to June decreased year - on - year [11]. - Trading Strategy: The domestic sugar market is in the best import profit window in the past five years, and the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. If the external market price does not rebound significantly, the domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - Important Information: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price declined slightly. The spot price of cotton increased slightly. The operating rates of spinning and weaving factories decreased, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased. The cotton import volume in June decreased significantly year - on - year [14]. - Trading Strategy: Although the Sino - US trade agreement has not been finalized, the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded. The downstream consumption is average, and the possible issuance of sliding - scale import quotas from July to August is a potential negative factor for cotton prices [15]. Eggs - Spot Information: The national egg price is mostly stable, with individual slight adjustments. The market trading is stable, and the egg price is expected to be mostly stable, with a few rising and a few slightly falling [17]. - Trading Strategy: High temperatures lead to a decrease in egg - laying rates, and the supply pressure is relieved. The short - term market oscillates, lacking a clear trend. For post - festival contracts, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound, and be aware of the risks of spot price fluctuations and large positions [18]. Pigs - Spot Information: The domestic pig price rose and fell in different regions yesterday. The demand is weak, and the pig price is expected to rise, fall, or remain stable today [20]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term supply increase is limited, and the 09 contract can be considered for buying at low prices. For off - season contracts such as 11, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound, and be aware of the risks of price fluctuations [21].