研究所晨会观点精萃-20250722

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Domestic market optimism is fermenting, and risk assets are continuously strong. Overseas, the outlook for the EU - US trade agreement is worrying, but the overall trade risk has decreased. The US Treasury Secretary will soon talk with China. The US dollar index and US bond yields have declined, and global risk appetite has increased. In China, economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. Policies to boost domestic risk appetite have been introduced. Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to be short - term strong with caution for long positions; bonds are at a high level with cautious observation; commodities show different trends in different sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overall situation: Overseas trade risks decrease, and the US dollar and bond yields fall. In China, economic growth in H1 is higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slow down. Policies boost domestic risk appetite. Stocks are short - term strong, bonds are high - level volatile, and commodities have different trends [2]. - Stock index: Driven by sectors like hydropower, construction machinery, etc., the domestic stock market rises. The short - term macro - upward drive is enhanced, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - Precious metals: On Monday, the precious metal market rose. Uncertainty before the August 1st tariff deadline supports precious metals. The short - term gold is in a box - shaped range, and silver has a strong technical rebound logic. The long - term support for gold remains [4]. Black Metals - Steel: On Monday, the steel spot and futures markets rose, and trading volume increased. Policy and project news boost market sentiment. Real demand is weak, but there are differences among varieties. Supply decreases, and the cost support is strong. The steel market is expected to be short - term strong [5][6]. - Iron ore: On Monday, the iron ore spot and futures prices rebounded. Steel mills have high profits, and iron water production increased. The short - term price is expected to be strong [6]. - Silicon manganese/silicon iron: On Monday, the prices rebounded slightly. Demand decreased, and the cost of raw materials changed. The production rhythm is stable, and the price may follow the coal price rebound [7]. - Soda ash: On Monday, the price rose significantly. Supply is in an over - supply pattern, demand is weak, and profits decline. The short - term price is supported by policies, but the long - term is suppressed [8]. - Glass: On Monday, the price rose. Supply pressure increases in the off - season, and demand is weak. Profits increase, and the price is supported by policies [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time. Short - term, the growth - stabilizing plan is favorable to the price [10]. - Aluminum: The social inventory is in a cumulative trend, and the fundamentals are weak. The price increase is limited [10]. - Aluminum alloy: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, production costs rise, and demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be strong but with limited upside [10]. - Tin: Supply is better than expected, and demand is weak. The short - term price is volatile, and the medium - term upside is limited [11]. - Lithium carbonate: On Monday, the price rose. Supply increases, inventory accumulates. Affected by policies, it is expected to be strong with attention to macro - disturbances [12]. - Industrial silicon: On Monday, the price rose. Production is stable, supply decreases, and the price is driven by manufacturers and policies. It is expected to be strong [13]. - Polysilicon: On Monday, the price rose. After policy adjustment, the price increased. It is expected to be strong with attention to market feedback [14]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Due to trade negotiation progress and Russian oil exports, the oil price is expected to be weak in the short term [15]. - Asphalt: The price is strong but lacks upward drive. Demand in the peak season is average, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [15]. - PX: It maintains a tight pattern, and the price is supported by the sector. The upward space is limited [16]. - PTA: The basis is at a flat level, and demand is low. The price is volatile, and there is a risk of production reduction [16]. - Ethylene glycol: Inventory decreases slightly, but demand is low. The short - term price is volatile [16]. - Short - fiber: The price follows the polyester sector and is weak. Orders are average, and inventory is high [17]. - Methanol: Supply increases, demand decreases, and the price is expected to be weak [17][18]. - PP: Supply pressure increases, demand is weak, and the price center is expected to move down [18]. - LLDPE: Demand is weak, inventory rises. The short - term price may rebound, but the long - term center will move down [18]. Agricultural Products - US soybeans: The soybean good - quality rate decreased, and high - temperature risks need attention [19]. - Soybean/canola meal: The soybean meal is in a weak - basis and inventory - accumulating pattern. The canola meal consumption is lower than expected. The short - term price is high - level volatile [20]. - Soybean/canola oil: Soybean oil inventory pressure is high, and canola oil has no fundamental support. The price is affected by palm oil [21]. - Palm oil: Domestic inventory increases, and the short - term price has resistance. The Malaysian palm oil export may improve, which may support the price [22].