Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the macro - financial sector, the stock index may have opportunities for style conversion, and the bond market is expected to have a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. In the commodity market, different metals and energy - chemical products have different supply - demand and price trends, and the agricultural product market also presents diverse price and supply - demand situations [3][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - Macro news includes the release of the "Housing Rental Regulations", the plan to boost the stock market in Hong Kong, the A - share equity distribution of BYD, and the tense situation of US - EU trade negotiations [2]. - The basis ratios of stock index futures are provided. The trading logic suggests paying attention to the impact of US tariffs overseas and the expectations of the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July domestically. It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. There are important international events such as the upcoming visit of EU leaders to China and the change in the result of the Japanese Senate election. The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [4]. - The economic data in the second quarter is resilient, and the export continues to grow. However, the export - rushing effect may weaken. The central bank's actions show its attitude of protecting funds, and the bond market is expected to have a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. It is recommended to enter the market on dips [5][6]. Precious Metals - The prices of Shanghai gold and silver rose, while COMEX silver fell slightly. The independence of the Fed is being interfered with, and the prices of precious metals are strong. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on precious metals [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - The price of copper rose. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory also decreased. The import was in a loss, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased. The price is expected to have limited rebound due to factors such as the approaching US copper tariff execution time [10]. Aluminum - The price of aluminum increased. The domestic inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and the overseas inventory also increased. The price is expected to continue to rise in the short - term but may follow the market due to factors such as the off - season and weak export demand [11]. Zinc - The price of zinc increased. The domestic zinc ore supply is still abundant, and the zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the short - term, the price may be strong due to factors such as the dovish Fed atmosphere, but it is bearish in the long - term [12][13]. Lead - The price of lead rose. The supply of lead ingots is relatively abundant, and the demand is affected by the anti - dumping tariff in the Middle East. The price is expected to be weak [14]. Nickel - The price of nickel was strong. The price of nickel ore is expected to decline, and the price of nickel iron is under pressure. The demand for refined nickel is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [15]. Tin - The price of tin fluctuated upwards. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the domestic smelters are facing raw material supply pressure. The demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [16][17]. Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium rose. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the market sentiment is positive. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [18]. Alumina - The price of alumina increased. The spot price in different regions rose, and the import window was closed. The futures price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the over - capacity pattern may remain in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel increased. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the price is expected to rise slightly in the short - term due to policy support [20]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The price of casting aluminum alloy increased. The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are both weak. The price may rise further but has difficulty in continuous increase [21]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. The supply side may eliminate over - capacity, and the demand side is supported by large - scale infrastructure. The inventory is at a low level, and the price is expected to continue to rise. The market needs to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [23][24]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore increased. The supply of overseas iron ore is recovering, and the demand is strong. The port inventory increased slightly, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - The price of glass increased. The market sentiment is positive, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to rise strongly in the short - term [27]. - The price of soda ash increased. The demand is still weak, and the supply is relatively loose. The price may be strong in the short - term but has limited upside in the long - term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon increased. The industry has an over - capacity pattern, and the demand is expected to weaken. The price is affected by market sentiment in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [30][31]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon increased. The supply is in excess, and the demand is insufficient. The price is affected by market sentiment in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - The prices of NR and RU rose. The market has different views on the rise and fall of rubber prices. The tire enterprise开工率 increased, and the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on rubber prices and be cautious in the short - term [38][39][42]. Crude Oil - The price of WTI crude oil fell slightly, and the price of INE crude oil rose. The fundamental market is healthy, but the seasonal demand in August may limit the upside. It is recommended to go long on dips and take profits [43]. Methanol - The price of methanol increased. The upstream开工率 decreased, and the demand is weak. The price is affected by market sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - allocate in the sector [44]. Urea - The price of urea increased. The domestic开工率 decreased slightly, and the demand is supported by compound fertilizer production and exports. The price has support below but limited upside. It is recommended to pay attention to long - allocation opportunities on dips [45]. Styrene - The price of styrene increased. The cost side supply is abundant, and the supply side开工率 increased. The inventory increased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to follow the cost side [46][47]. PVC - The price of PVC increased. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The cost support is weakening, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the long - term [48]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol increased. The supply side开工率 decreased, and the demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, but the de - stocking is expected to slow down. The price is expected to turn weak in the long - term [49]. PTA - The price of PTA increased. The supply side is expected to accumulate inventory, and the demand is in the off - season. The processing fee has limited repair space, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following PX on dips [50]. p - Xylene - The price of p - xylene increased. The检修 season is over, and the downstream demand is high. The inventory is low, and the price is expected to continue to de - stock. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following crude oil on dips [51]. Polyethylene PE - The price of polyethylene increased. The EU's sanctions on Russia may affect the price. The demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate downward [52]. Polypropylene PP - The price of polypropylene increased. The supply side开工率 may increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [53]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - The price of live pigs fluctuated. The supply is expected to increase slightly in the short - term, and the demand is weak. The price may rise again in August but is difficult to reach a new high. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips and short - sell the far - month contracts after rebounds [55]. Eggs - The price of eggs was mostly stable. The supply pressure is relieved, and the market sentiment is positive. The short - term price may fluctuate, and it is recommended to short - sell the 09 and later contracts after rebounds [56]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The price of US soybeans fluctuated. The domestic soybean meal price increased slightly. The supply is high in the short - term, and the demand is strong. The price is affected by factors such as Sino - US trade relations, and it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to supply - side changes [57][58]. Oils and Fats - The price of palm oil rose. The export and production data of palm oil in Malaysia are complex. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level. The price is expected to be volatile due to factors such as the US biodiesel policy and the annual - level production increase [59][60][61]. Sugar - The price of sugar fluctuated. The domestic import of sugar increased in June. The price is expected to decline if the international price does not rebound significantly [62][63]. Cotton - The price of cotton fell slightly. The downstream consumption is average, and the market expects the issuance of import quotas, which is a potential negative factor for the price [64][65].
五矿期货文字早评-20250722
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-22 01:35