不锈钢：“反内卷”政策下的不锈钢市场

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests taking a bullish view of the stainless - steel market in the short term [3][23] 2) Core View of the Report - The stainless - steel market has shown a stabilizing and rising trend, driven by the improvement of the macro - environment and the expectation of the "anti - involution" policy. Although the supply - demand pattern remains supply - strong and demand - weak, the policy has boosted market sentiment. However, the possibility of capacity clearance through this "anti - involution" is low. The industry may balance supply and demand through market - based adjustment means in the short term [3][17][23] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Raw Material End Marginal Weakening - Indonesia: The 2025 RKAB production target for nickel ore is 364 million tons, higher than 319 million tons in 2024, but the market absorption is poor. The actual consumption in the first half of 2025 was only about 120 million tons. The mine's price - holding mentality has weakened, and the nickel ore premium and discount prices have loosened [5] - Philippines: Rainfall has not significantly affected shipments. Exports of nickel ore to Indonesia have increased significantly, with 4.6 million tons imported by Indonesia in the first half of the year. It is expected that exports will increase from 1 million tons in 2023 to 5 - 10 million tons this year. The inventory of domestic nickel ore ports has accumulated faster [5] - Ferronickel: In June, stainless - steel production declined significantly. Under supply - demand pressure, steel mills lowered ferronickel procurement prices. The production cost support of ferronickel has weakened, and the price has continued to decline. Some Indonesian ferronickel plants have reduced production loads, and the demand for nickel ore has decreased [12] Macro Expectations Drive the Rise of the Finished - Product End - Since June, although the production - reduction plans of steel mills have had some effects, the overall supply remains high. As prices bottomed out, stainless - steel futures have driven up spot prices, and the basis has changed from premium to discount. Market trading has become more active, social inventory has decreased, and steel mills' profits have been repaired. However, terminal demand in the traditional off - season is still weak, and the sustainability of demand needs to be observed [17] Capacity Situation - The scale of stainless - steel capacity to be put into production is still large, with a trend of industrial transfer to Indonesia. The proportion of traditional backward capacity in domestic stainless - steel capacity is low, so the possibility of industry clearance through eliminating backward capacity is limited. The industry may increase industrial concentration through mergers and acquisitions, and in the short term, it is more likely to balance supply and demand through market - based adjustment means such as active production restrictions and staggered production [23]