研究早观点-20250722

Core Insights - The report highlights the evolving dynamics of the U.S. economy, particularly the impact of tariffs on inflation, with June CPI data reflecting these influences. The overall market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path remain stable, with anticipated rate cuts in September and December [6][7]. Market Trends - Domestic market indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,559.79, up 0.72%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 11,007.49, up 0.86% [4]. - In the U.S. market, major indices exhibited mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly down by 0.07%, while the Nasdaq rose by 1.51% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.59% [6]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The report notes a decline in initial jobless claims to 221,000, continuing a five-week downward trend. The June CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.67%, up from 2.38%, indicating a rebound influenced by tariffs, particularly in used car prices and imported goods [6][7]. - The analysis suggests limited further increases in tariffs due to insufficient economic fundamentals to absorb negative impacts, with expectations that the inflationary effects of tariffs will diminish by the third quarter [6]. Currency and Credit Dynamics - The report discusses the historical evolution of the U.S. dollar's credit anchor, transitioning from the gold standard to a debt-driven economy, highlighting the challenges faced by the dollar in maintaining its value amidst increasing debt and geopolitical uncertainties [9][10]. - Short-term outlook for the dollar indicates a weak and volatile trend, with potential for structural depreciation in the medium term due to diverging monetary policies and fiscal sustainability concerns [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - Emerging market equities and bonds are becoming increasingly attractive, with expectations of foreign capital inflows boosting stock prices, particularly in domestic demand-driven sectors. Bonds are expected to benefit from a rebalancing of dollar assets [10]. - The report emphasizes the continued importance of gold as an investment, recommending accumulation during price corrections, supported by factors such as a weak dollar and central bank demand for diversification [10].