国泰君安期货所长早读-20250722

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the content [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The US-EU trade negotiation has reached a deadlock, with the US setting an August 1st deadline for a new trade agreement, and the EU considering "nuclear option" countermeasures [5][20][21] - For specific commodities, the report provides trend predictions such as gold's upward oscillation, silver's upward breakthrough, and copper's price supported by inventory reduction [12][18][21] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Propylene - On July 22, 2025, the listing benchmark price of the first batch of propylene futures contracts was 6350 yuan/ton. Considering the spread and delivery costs, the recommended strategy is to buy the 02 contract of propylene and short the 01 contract of PP [6] Glass - In the short term, the glass market is slightly bullish but overvalued. The market has rebounded due to policy expectations and reduced short positions. However, the high premium of futures contracts over spot prices may lead to market fluctuations. As the market approaches August, the delivery logic may favor short positions [9] Metals - Gold and Silver: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through upward [12][18] - Copper: Copper price is supported by inventory reduction, with both domestic and international copper inventories decreasing [21] - Zinc: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [12][24] - Lead: The price of lead is supported by supply - demand contradictions [12][27] - Tin: The price of tin is weakening [12][29] - Aluminum and Related Products: Aluminum is expected to oscillate upward, alumina has a short - term strong sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [12][33] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel's upward potential is limited by reality despite positive macro - sentiment, and stainless steel's trend is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment with fundamentals determining its elasticity [12][36] Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: With potential supply reduction and positive macro - sentiment, the short - term trend may remain strong [12][41] - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon's position is decreasing, making the market resistant to decline; polysilicon requires attention to component sales [12][45] Building Materials - Iron Ore: Supported by macro - expectations, it is in a bullish oscillation [12][48] - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Market sentiment remains strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][50][51] - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate: Market sentiment is strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][55] Energy - Coke and Coking Coal: Both are expected to oscillate upward [12][59][60] - Steam Coal: With the recovery of daily consumption, the market is stabilizing with an oscillating trend [12][63] Others - Log: The log market is oscillating repeatedly [66]