煤焦早报：现货上调，空头离场，煤焦加速上行，警惕情绪过热-20250722

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for both coke and coking coal [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is currently dominated by the expectation of domestic supply - side policies. Before August 12th, the market is mainly focused on risk prevention. With the upcoming release of the steady - growth plan for ten key industries by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, market sentiment has been boosted. In the short term, a bullish approach can be taken, but the risk of a callback should be watched [4]. - For coking coal, the mine output recovery is slow, while downstream replenishment enthusiasm is high. The inventory is shifting from mines to downstream. For coke, the first round of spot price increases has been implemented, and there are expectations for further increases. The supply - demand gap for coke is widening. If steel prices continue to rise, the industrial chain profits may be transmitted upstream [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Related News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that a steady - growth plan for ten key industries, including steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, is即将出台 [1]. - On July 19th, the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project officially started, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, six times that of the Three Gorges Project [1]. 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Price and Basis - The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is reported at 1,008 yuan/ton (+58). The active contract is reported at 1,006 yuan/ton (+80). The basis is 22 yuan/ton (-22), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 50 yuan/ton (-0.5) [1]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - The production recovery at the mine end is slower than expected, while demand remains flat. The operating rate of 523 mines is reported at 86.07% (+0.55), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.85% (+0.53). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 72.9% (+0.18) [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, while downstream inventory is increasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 339.07 million tons (-38.11), and the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 191.54 million tons (-5.53). The inventory of 247 steel mills is 791.1 million tons (+8.17), and the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 790.19 million tons (+37.75). The port inventory is 321.5 million tons (-0.14) [2]. 3.3 Coke 3.3.1 Price and Basis - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1,270 yuan/ton (+0), and the second - round spot price increase has started. The active contract is reported at 1,603 yuan/ton (+85). The basis is - 237 yuan/ton (-85), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 51 yuan/ton (-6) [3]. 3.3.2 Supply and Demand - Demand has increased more than expected, and the supply - demand gap has widened. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 72.9% (+0.18). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.89% (+0.99), and the daily average pig iron output is 242.44 million tons (+2.63) [3]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, while downstream inventory is increasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 55.55 million tons (-4.03), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 638.99 million tons (+1.19), and the port inventory is 199.11 million tons (-0.97) [3]. 3.4 Strategy Recommendations - In the short term, a bullish approach can be taken, but if the market accelerates, the risk of a callback should be watched. For J09 and JM09, it is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and re - enter the market on pullbacks [4][5].