国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250722

Report Overview - Date: July 22, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Research Firms: Guotai Junan Futures Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Nickel: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Macro sentiment dominates the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Potential supply reduction combined with strong macro sentiment may lead to a strong short - term trend [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the futures price is resilient [2][13] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the transaction situation at the component end [2][13] Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 122,550 yuan, with a change of 2,050 yuan compared to T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,905 yuan, up 180 yuan from T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads also showed corresponding changes [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia will continue maintenance; the Philippine nickel industry welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia stopped due to losses [4][5][6][7] - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 71,280 yuan, up 1,320 yuan from T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, open interest, and various prices in the lithium - salt industry chain also showed changes [9]. - Macro and Industry News: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased; Yichun Yinli plans to conduct equipment maintenance; in June 2025, the total import of spodumene decreased by 4.8% month - on - month [10][11] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 9,260 yuan, up 565 yuan from T - 1. The closing price of the PS2509 contract was 45,660 yuan, up 1,810 yuan from T - 1. Data on trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, and profits also showed corresponding changes [13]. - Macro and Industry News: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of key - industry stable - growth plans, and some industries have shown good growth [14][15] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [15]