工业硅、多晶硅日评：继续向上动力略显不足-20250722

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a situation where the upward momentum is insufficient. Although there are signs of a rebound in futures and spot prices, the selling pressure on the futures surface increases as the price rises, and the follow - up may enter a consolidation stage [1]. - The polysilicon market has also seen a continuous upward trend in the disk since the end of June, but as the previous long - positions gradually take profits and leave the market, the disk may adjust in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - Industrial Silicon Spot Prices: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.65% to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) increased by 1.04% to 9,750 yuan/ton. Different regions and grades of industrial silicon prices all showed varying degrees of increase [1]. - Industrial Silicon Futures Prices: The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 6.50% to 9,260 yuan/ton [1]. - Polysilicon Spot Prices: The prices of N - type dense materials, N - type re - feeding materials, N - type mixed materials, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged [1]. - Polysilicon Futures Prices: The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 4.13% to 45,660 yuan/ton [1]. - Silicon Wafer Prices: The prices of N - type 210mm, N - type 210R, and N - type 183mm silicon wafers increased, while the prices of P - type 210mm and P - type 182mm remained unchanged [1]. - Battery Cell Prices: The price of single - crystal PERC battery cells M10 - 182mm increased by 0.75% [1]. - Component Prices: The prices of single - crystal PERC components remained mostly unchanged [1]. - Organic Silicon Prices: The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil remained unchanged [1]. Industry News - SynVista plans to build its first energy storage manufacturing plant in Southeast Asia in Malaysia, with an expected annual production capacity of 5GWh by the end of 2025 [1]. - In June 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 68,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume was 340,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The import volume was very small, with a cumulative import volume of 5,200 tons from January to June, a year - on - year decrease of 62% [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Industrial Silicon Supply and Demand: On the supply side, northern large - scale factories have production reduction plans and no restart information, while the southwest region is about to enter the wet season, with power costs decreasing and enterprise start - up rates gradually rising, but the restart speed is slow, and the supply may decrease after offsetting. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain production reduction, some silicon material factories plan to restart production in July, which will bring some demand increments; the organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined, and the overall start - up rate has decreased, further weakening the demand for industrial silicon; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. - Polysilicon Supply and Demand: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises maintain production reduction, and some may have new production capacity put into operation, and the output is expected to increase slightly, with the output in July approaching 110,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is weak, the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials has increased, and although the downstream silicon wafer prices have followed the increase due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the terminal market is still weak due to the over - consumption of demand in the first half of the year [1].