宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250722
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-07-22 01:50
- Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the price trends and driving factors of several agricultural commodity futures, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil. It provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on these varieties [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views: Short - term and medium - term views are "strong", and the intraday view is "oscillating strongly". The reference view is also "oscillating strongly" [5][6]. - Core Logic: The weather in US soybean - producing areas is favorable, putting pressure on US soybean futures prices. The soybean meal futures price shows a pattern of being stronger in the domestic market than in the international market. The forward purchase of soybeans in China is still slow, and the supply pressure at present has not been transmitted to the forward months, with forward supply remaining tight. Under the high - operating - rate of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory has been rising for 10 consecutive weeks, and the negative basis of soybean meal persists. In the short term, the supply expectation of soybean meal futures dominates, with futures stronger than spot and stronger than US soybeans, and the rebound continues [5]. Palm Oil (P) - Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views: The intraday view is "oscillating weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating weakly" [7]. - Core Logic: The oil market shows a trend of rising and then falling due to the decline in international oil prices. Palm oil leads the rise in the oil sector, indicating that the rebound of the oil sector reflects the energy attribute of oils. Supported by the positive expectations of biodiesel demand in the US and Indonesia, the energy demand support for palm oil and soybean oil futures prices remains strong. In the short term, the palm oil futures price may turn to oscillating operation due to the fluctuation of international oil prices [7]. Soybean Oil - Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views: Short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly". The reference view is also "oscillating weakly" [6]. - Core Logic: The influencing factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].