甲醇日评：短期政策预期大于基本面-20250722

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The short - term policy expectation for methanol is greater than the fundamentals. Although the methanol fundamentals are bearish in terms of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to temporarily exit short positions and wait and see [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: MA01 increased from 2434.00 yuan/ton to 2482.00 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.97%; MA05 rose from 2364.00 yuan/ton to 2406.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.78%; MA09 climbed from 2365.00 yuan/ton to 2411.00 yuan/ton, a growth of 1.95% [1]. - Spot prices: In different regions, prices in some areas changed slightly. For example, the price in Taicang increased by 0.52%, while that in Shandong decreased by 0.11%. Some regions like Guangdong and Hubei had no price change [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased from - 49.00 yuan/ton to - 84.50 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Raw Material Prices - Coal prices: The price of Ordos Q5500 increased by 1.12%, while that of Datong Q5500 remained unchanged, and Yulin Q6000 decreased by 0.49% [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. 3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 1.58%, while natural - gas - to - methanol profit remained unchanged [1]. - Downstream profit: Northwest MTO profit increased by 6.70%, while East China MTO profit decreased by 5.15%. Profits of some downstream products like acetic acid, MTBE decreased, while those of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether remained unchanged [1]. 4. Important Information - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated and rose, with an opening price of 2368 yuan/ton, a closing price of 2411 yuan/ton, a rise of 37 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 857,527 lots, and an open interest of 650,630 lots, with increased volume and decreased positions [1]. - Foreign: Two 330 - million - ton methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country reduced their loads to 50%, and another 165 - million - ton plant planned a short - term shutdown for maintenance in the near two days, leading to a slight decline in the overall operating load and daily production [1]. 5. Trading Strategy - Considering the policy expectation and the bearish fundamentals of methanol, it is recommended to temporarily exit short positions and wait and see [1].