铅：供需矛盾预期，支撑价格

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View - The expected supply - demand contradiction of lead supports its price. The lead - zinc industry is expected to achieve a mild recovery as the lead - zinc industry monthly prosperity index in June continued to operate in the "normal" range [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Fundamental Tracking - Price and Volume: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 16,960 yuan/ton, up 0.83%; the closing price of LME lead 3M electronic disk was 2,011.5 dollars/ton, up 1.72%. The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract was 44,659 lots, an increase of 12,371 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 9,912 lots, an increase of 1,265 lots [1] - Position and Premium: The open interest of SHFE lead main contract was 44,870 lots, a decrease of 5,711 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 136,203 lots, an increase of 105 lots. The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was - 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 23.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 5.5 dollars/ton [1] - Inventory and Profit: The SHFE lead futures inventory was 60,059 tons, a decrease of 25 tons; the LME lead inventory was 264,925 tons, a decrease of 3,475 tons. The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 725.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 134.8 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of SHFE lead continuous third contract was - 543.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80.62 yuan/ton [1] News - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the Fed's policy needs to be re - examined, and trade negotiations will prioritize quality rather than rush for a deadline [1] - The prospect of the US - EU trade agreement is bleak, and the EU is considering a "nuclear option" for countermeasures. The US has proposed stricter trade conditions, including raising tariffs to 15% or higher, maintaining the current 25% auto tariff, and possibly imposing a 100% tariff on pharmaceuticals [1] - The monitoring model results of the monthly prosperity index of China's lead - zinc industry showed that the lead - zinc industry prosperity index in June continued to operate in the "normal" range, and the industry is expected to achieve a mild recovery [1] Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [1]