碳酸锂：供给潜在减量叠加宏观情绪偏强，短期走势或仍偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a "moderately strong" outlook, with a range of [-2, 2] where -2 is most bearish and 2 is most bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to potential supply reduction and strong macro - sentiment, the short - term trend of lithium carbonate may remain strong [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 71,280, the trading volume was 848,150, and the open interest was 381,185. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 70,200, the trading volume was 86,835, and the open interest was 114,678. The warehouse receipt volume was 9,969 [1] - Basis Data: The basis of spot - 2509 was - 3,280, spot - 2511 was - 2,200, 2509 - 2511 was 1,080, electric carbon - industrial carbon was 1,650, and spot - CIF was 6,997 [1] - Raw Material Data: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 730, and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,545 [1] - Lithium Salt Data: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 68,000, industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 66,350, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 63,370, etc. [1] - Industry Chain Related Data: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 32,075, lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage type) was 30,645, etc. [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 67,741 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1273 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 68,000 yuan/ton, up 1350 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 66,350 yuan/ton, up 1300 yuan/ton [2] - Jiangte Motor announced that Yichun Yinli plans to stop production for equipment maintenance on July 25, 2025, for about 26 days, which will not affect existing sales contracts and future supply [3] - In June 2025, the total import volume of lithium spodumene was about 576,000 tons, a 4.8% month - on - month decrease, equivalent to 46,000 tons of LCE. Lithium spodumene from Australia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa accounted for 79% [3]