集运指数（欧线）：酌情逢高布空10，10-12和10-02反套持有

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a strategy of shorting the EC2510 contract on rallies and holding the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads. The 2508 contract's performance depends on Maersk's 32 - week freight rates, with limited unilateral trading value. The 2510 contract, in the traditional off - season, should be shorted on rallies, but the downward trend may not be smooth [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - Futures Contracts: The EC2508 contract closed at 2,291.9, up 3.26%, with 7,390 in trading volume, 14,037 in open interest, and a decrease of 879 in open interest. The EC2510 contract closed at 1,592.7, down 2.35%, with 69,273 in trading volume, 51,185 in open interest, and a decrease of 186 in open interest. The EC2512 contract closed at 1,742.2, down 3.72%, with 7,755 in trading volume, 8,114 in open interest, and an increase of 60 in open interest [1]. - Freight Rate Index: On July 21, 2025, the SCFIS European route index was 2,400.50 points, down 0.9%; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1,301.81 points, up 2.8%. The SCFI European route index was 2,079 $/TEU, down 1.0%; the SCFI US - West route index was 2,142 $/FEU, down 2.4% [1]. 2. Spot Freight Rates - Gemini Alliance: Maersk's 31 - week Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price was 3,070 $/FEU (up 70 $/FEU from the previous period), and the latest price was 3,170 $/FEU. Hapag - Lloyd's FAK in late July was around 3,300 $/FEU [8]. - OA Alliance: The FAK in late July was around 3,500 $/FEU on average. Evergreen's online e - commerce platform quoted 3,760 $/FEU in August, up 100 - 200 $/FEU from early July [8]. - PA Alliance: ONE and HMM's rates in late July remained the same, Yangming's decreased by 100, with an average of around 3,300 $/FEU. ONE's offline price in early August remained the same, and the online e - commerce platform increased by 300 $/FEU [8]. - MSC: The FAK in early August increased by 200 to 3,640 $/FEU, the same as in early July [8]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Cargo Volume: Benefiting from strong FOB cargo volume, shipping companies' loading conditions at the end of July were optimistic, and the cargo volume in early August was still supported. On a monthly basis, August is likely to see an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, but the inflection point of cargo volume is unclear [8]. 4. Contract Analysis - 2508 Contract: Its performance depends on Maersk's 32 - week freight rates. In the neutral scenario, the 08 contract's valuation is around 2,050 - 2,100 points, and the delivery settlement price may be in the 2,100 - 2,200 points range. In the optimistic scenario, the delivery settlement price may be above 2,250 points. Unilateral trading value is limited [9]. - 2510 Contract: October is the traditional off - season for the European route. Shipping companies need to suspend voyages to slow down the decline in freight rates. It is recommended to short on rallies, but the downward trend may not be smooth [9].