宝城期货甲醇早报-20250722

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain a volatile and moderately strong trend. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of methanol 2509 are respectively "volatile", "volatile", and "volatile and moderately strong", with a reference view of "moderately strong operation" [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Situation - The methanol futures 2509 contract showed a moderately strong intraday trend and a volatile medium - term trend. On the night of Monday this week, domestic methanol futures maintained a volatile and moderately strong trend, with the futures price slightly up 0.79% to 2418 yuan/ton [1][5]. Driving Logic - Supply - side factors: Domestic methanol production capacity is continuously being released, increasing internal supply pressure. Overseas shipments are constantly arriving at ports, increasing external supply expectations, leading to a stockpiling cycle at ports. Meanwhile, downstream demand enters the off - season, resulting in a looser supply - demand structure [5]. - Policy factors: After the previous sharp correction, the negative sentiment has been released. The domestic high - level meeting set the tone for a new round of supply - side reform, which may boost domestic commodity futures [5]. - Related product factors: Driven by the sharp rise in coal futures prices, the methanol futures market has been affected [1][5].