铅锌日评：区间偏强-20250722

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the lead and zinc industry is "Range Strong" [1] Core Viewpoints - For lead, the market has a supply - demand stalemate with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. Considering domestic policies to clear out backward non - ferrous metal production capacity and positive market sentiment, short - term lead prices are expected to be strong [1]. - For zinc, the market shows an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with an emerging inventory accumulation trend and weak fundamentals. However, due to strong market bullish sentiment and the policy of clearing out backward non - ferrous metal production capacity, short - term zinc prices are expected to be strong, but the upside space may be limited [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Trade Data - In June 2025, China's lead - acid battery imports were 486,100 units, a 14.73% month - on - month increase and an 8.51% year - on - year increase. From January to June 2025, the cumulative imports were 2,783,300 units, a 2.16% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, exports were 18,744,600 units, a 6.69% month - on - month decrease and a 20.53% year - on - year decrease. From January to June 2025, the cumulative exports were 113 million units, a 6.61% year - on - year decrease [1]. Production News - A large recycled lead smelter in North China plans to resume production by early August, affecting July production by about 2,000 tons [1]. Price and Market Analysis - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots rose 0.60% from the previous day, and the closing price of the main lead futures contract rose 0.83%. Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had a minor decline in production due to equipment maintenance. Recycled lead smelters face raw material shortages and high costs, with low overall production. Demand is shifting from the off - season to the peak season, which may reduce the drag on lead prices [1]. Zinc Trade Data - In June 2025, the export volume of galvanized sheets was 1.1312 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to June was 6.9232 million tons, a 12.23% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, the import of zinc concentrate was 330,000 physical tons, a 32.87% month - on - month decrease and a 22.42% year - on - year increase. The cumulative import from January to June was 2.5339 million physical tons, a 47.74% year - on - year increase [1]. Price and Market Analysis - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots rose 2.25% from the previous day, and the closing price of the main zinc futures contract rose 2.83%. Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The supply of zinc ore and zinc ingots is increasing, while demand is in the off - season. Although zinc inventory increased due to downstream bargain - hunting, the overall procurement is limited [1]. Lead and Zinc Market Data Price and Basis - Lead: SMM1 lead ingot average price is 16,800 yuan/ton, up 0.60%; futures main contract closing price is 16,960 yuan/ton, up 0.83%; Shanghai - lead basis is - 160 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [1]. - Zinc: SMM1 zinc ingot average price is 22,750 yuan/ton, up 2.25%; futures main contract closing price is 22,925 yuan/ton, up 2.83%; Shanghai - zinc basis is - 175 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [1]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - Lead: Futures active - contract trading volume is 44,659 lots, up 38.31%; open interest is 44,870 lots, down 11.29%; trading - to - open - interest ratio is 1.00, up 55.92% [1]. - Zinc: Futures active - contract trading volume is 251,405 lots, up 66.42%; open interest is 133,314 lots, up 14.96%; trading - to - open - interest ratio is 1.89, up 44.77% [1]. Inventory - Lead: LME inventory is 264,925 tons with no change; Shanghai - lead warehouse receipt inventory is 60,059 tons, down 0.04% [1]. - Zinc: LME inventory is 118,225 tons with no change; Shanghai - zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 11,088 tons, down 2.40% [1]