中债策略周报-20250722

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese economy had a good start in the first half of the year, and it is not difficult to achieve the annual target of 5%. The market's expectation of strong policies is rising, and the improvement of risk appetite may cause the bond market pricing to remain entangled. Given the limited space for adding duration, the market needs time to wait for incremental funds to digest the existing supply. During this process, the decline in capital interest rates may reopen the interest rate spread space, and continuing to explore coupon assets may be the best strategy [5]. - In the second quarter, GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year, higher than expected, and the economy in the first half achieved an unexpected growth rate of 5.3%. The economic data in June continued the characteristic of "strong supply and weak demand" since the first quarter. The exchange rate pressure is relatively controllable in the short term, and the loose monetary policy will continue to cooperate with fiscal bond issuance in the second half of the year [68]. - In July, there are few foreseeable negative factors. The fundamental data is still mixed, and the indication of the interest rate direction is not strong. The smooth downward trend of long - term interest rates may occur after the cross - quarter period. High - cost - performance varieties can be preferentially selected [67]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Bond Market Performance Review - Interest Rate Bond Market: The curve became slightly steeper, and long - term interest rates showed a V - shaped trend during the week. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond active bonds decreased by 0.2 and 0.3 bps to 1.67% and 1.88% respectively, and the yield of 1 - year treasury bond decreased by 2.8 bps to 1.34%. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 7 - year interest rate bonds decreased by 2bp, 1bp, and 1bp respectively, the yields of 5 - year and 10 - year bonds were flat compared with the previous week, and the yield of 30 - year bonds increased slightly by 1bp. The yield curve of policy - bank bonds also changed little, with only the 1 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year yields decreasing by 2bp, 1bp, and 1bp [11][14]. - Credit Bond Market: The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA + implicit urban investment bonds decreased by 2bp, 3bp, and 1bp respectively; the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds decreased by about 2bp [14]. 3.2 Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - Local Bonds: This week, 251.2 billion yuan of local bonds were issued, with a net issuance of 163.4 billion yuan, including 27.6 billion yuan of new general bonds, 161.4 billion yuan of new special bonds (including 98.4 billion yuan of special special bonds), 62.1 billion yuan of ordinary refinancing bonds, and 0 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds [19]. - Treasury Bonds: This week, 243.3 billion yuan of treasury bonds were issued, with a net issuance of 58.2 billion yuan, including 123 billion yuan of special treasury bonds [19]. - Policy - Bank Bonds: This week, 162 billion yuan of policy - bank bonds were issued, with a net issuance of - 65.4 billion yuan [19]. 3.3 Capital Market Situation - Funding Tightening and Central Bank Intervention: Affected by the tax period, the capital market tightened rapidly. The central bank increased the investment to ease the market. On the first day of the tax period (July 15), the overnight interest rate jumped about 10bp. R001 and DR001 quickly rose above 1.50%, reaching 1.57% and 1.53% respectively; R007 and DR007 also rose to 1.59% and 1.57% respectively, with increases of 5bp and 3bp. With the support of the central bank's large - scale capital investment, the capital market gradually stabilized, and the overnight interest rate returned below 1.5% [25]. - Interest Rate Changes: The weekly average values of R001 and R007 increased by 13bp and 3bp respectively compared with the previous week. The overnight and one - week Shibor interest rates closed at 1.46% and 1.49%, changing by + 15.3bp and + 4bp respectively compared with the previous week; the overnight and one - week CNH Hibor interest rates closed at 1.42% and 1.62%, changing by - 20bp and + 0.4bp respectively compared with the previous week [5][25]. - Certificate of Deposit Yields: After the end of the tax period, most certificate of deposit yields decreased. The yields of 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased by 2bp, 2bp, and 1bp respectively to 1.54%, 1.58%, and 1.62%. The weighted issuance period of inter - bank certificates of deposit was compressed to 8.3 months, compared with 8.9 months in the previous week. Under the background of the gradual tightening of the capital market during the tax period, the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, with the average trading volume dropping from 8.21 trillion yuan in the previous week to 7.24 trillion yuan [28]. 3.4 China's Bond Market Macro - environment Tracking and Outlook - Economic Fundamentals - Foreign Trade: In June, exports increased by 5.8% year - on - year, remaining stable compared with the 6% increase from January to May. The trade surplus in June was 114.77 billion US dollars, remaining at a high level. Exports to ASEAN, India, Africa, and Latin America increased by 16.8%, 9.4%, 34.8%, and - 2.1% respectively year - on - year; exports to the US decreased by 16.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing compared with the previous value. The export growth rate of labor - intensive products continued to be low, while products such as general machinery and ships with relative competitive advantages had a relatively fast export growth rate [33][36]. - Social Financing: In June, the monthly new social financing was 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year - on - year. The end - of - month growth rate was 8.9% (previous value: 8.7%). Entity credit, government bond financing, and foreign currency loans improved significantly year - on - year [37]. - Entity Credit: In June, entity credit increased by 2.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 171 billion yuan year - on - year. The improvement of enterprise short - term loans was obvious. In the first half of the year, household loans increased by 1.17 trillion yuan, and enterprise loans increased by 11.57 trillion yuan [43]. - Money Supply: In June, M1 increased by 4.6% year - on - year (previous value: 2.3%), and M2 increased by 8.3% year - on - year, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous value [46]. - Industrial Added Value: In June, the industrial added value increased by 6.8% year - on - year, reaching a new high in the past three months. The growth rate of emerging industries was faster than that of traditional industries [47]. - Social Consumption: In June, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.8%, significantly lower than the previous value. Most optional consumption items declined, but automobile retail improved [51]. - Fixed - Asset Investment: In June, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 0.5%, lower than the previous value. The year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing, large - scale infrastructure, and real estate all declined to varying degrees [58]. - Real Estate: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 11.2%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction, and completion were - 20%, - 9.1%, and - 14.8% respectively. The new construction and construction growth rates both declined [62]. - Unemployment Rate: In June, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5%, the same as the previous value [62]. - Monetary Policy: The central bank's open market operations this week resulted in a net capital withdrawal of 0.5 trillion yuan, including a net withdrawal of 0.4 trillion yuan from reverse repurchases and 0.1 trillion yuan from MLF. The outlook for the second half of the year is that the central bank will maintain a loose tone, and liquidity is likely to remain loose [5][65]. - Exchange Rate: The US dollar index has been below 100 for the past week, and the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate. The pressure on RMB depreciation is relatively controllable in the short term, and external shocks will not restrict the intensity of monetary easing in the short term [65][68]. 3.5 China's Bond Market Weekly Summary and Outlook - Fundamental Outlook: The economy in the first half of the year had a good start, but the data indicating domestic demand such as nominal GDP, CPI, and household loans were still weak. New policy clues or signals are crucial for the short - term macro - environment [68]. - Monetary Policy Outlook: The effective demand in the economy is insufficient, and the loose monetary policy will continue [67]. - Bond Market Outlook: In July, there are few negative factors. The smooth downward trend of long - term interest rates may occur after the cross - quarter period. High - cost - performance varieties can be preferentially selected [67].