生猪日报：期价震荡偏强-20250722

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The overall view of the report is that the price of live pigs will be in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually by December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will support pig prices to some extent. The 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price, and short - term price fluctuations are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 21, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 284 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the fundamentals of live pigs have few contradictions in the medium term. The LH2509 contract is in a wide - range oscillatory adjustment. Affected by macro - sentiment, the main contract (LH2509) increased its positions and rose, with a position of about 64,300 lots. The highest price on the day was 14,510 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,160 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,365 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatingly. The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and the fact that subsequent slaughter increase is limited while the fourth quarter is gradually entering the peak consumption season [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly by December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices. The 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price, and short - term price fluctuations are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 21, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.4 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan or 0.07% from July 18. In Henan, it was 14.53 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan or 0.35%. In Sichuan, it was 13.57 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan or 0.29%. Among futures prices, the prices of various contracts generally increased, with the 01 contract up 2.1%, the 03 contract up 1.81%, the 05 contract up 1.7%, the 09 contract up 1.63%, and the 11 contract up 1.72%. The main basis in Henan decreased by 80 yuan or 32.65% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The content provides data tracking charts such as the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14].