光大期货金融期货日报-20250722

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to remain volatile. The short - term may bring incremental funds to the market, but the long - term effect remains to be seen. The index is difficult to break through the central level and rise significantly, and it will not fall sharply in the short term either [1]. - The bond market will continue its oscillating pattern. With the GDP maintaining over 5% for three consecutive quarters and the economy showing characteristics of strong production, rising consumption, stable exports, slow investment, and weak real estate, the probability of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Stock Index: The A - share market generally rose yesterday. The weekend's start of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River drove up the infrastructure sector. June's economic and financial data showed mixed results. The central government aims to stimulate economic recovery through investment, which may bring short - term incremental funds. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed, and the index's fundamentals depend on the domestic economic recovery process. Currently, credit contraction and insufficient demand are the main contradictions, so the index is unlikely to rise sharply, nor will it fall significantly in the short term [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond futures closed lower. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and there was a net withdrawal of funds. Economic data indicates that the economy has strong resilience, and the probability of an interest rate cut in the short term is low, so the bond market will continue to oscillate [3]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: IH rose 0.15%, IF rose 0.57%, IC rose 0.91%, and IM rose 0.77% from July 18th to July 21st [4]. - Stock Indexes: The Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.28%, the CSI 300 rose 0.67%, the CSI 500 rose 1.01%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.92% from July 18th to July 21st [4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: TS fell 0.01%, TF fell 0.03%, T fell 0.03%, and TL fell 0.41% from July 18th to July 21st [4]. 3.3 Market News - The 1 - year LPR was reported at 3.0%, and the 5 - year and above LPR was reported at 3.5%, remaining unchanged from the previous values [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: There are charts showing the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC contracts [7][8][10]. - Treasury Bond Futures: There are charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][19]. - Exchange Rates: There are charts showing the exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indices [22][23][26]