化工“反内卷”系列报告（开篇）：“反内卷”势在必行，化工行业新一轮供给侧改革呼之欲出

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is facing intensified competition leading to profit pressure, necessitating a "de-involution" approach to improve the competitive landscape and achieve normal profit levels [5][15] - Domestic demand is expected to stabilize and recover, while export demand growth may be limited due to frequent anti-dumping cases against Chinese chemical products [6][59] - The current valuation of the basic chemical and petrochemical sectors is at historical lows, indicating a need for policy-driven valuation recovery [70] Summary by Sections 1. Supply Side: - The chemical industry has seen increased competition since 2025, resulting in continuous profit pressure. The Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) decreased by 6.95% from the beginning of 2025 [16] - From January to May 2025, the chemical raw materials and products industry achieved a revenue of 3.70 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, but the total profit decreased by 4.7% [16] - The overall capacity utilization rates for chemical raw materials and chemical fiber manufacturing were 71.90% and 85.60%, respectively, showing a decline [16][20] 2. Demand Side: - The 2025 Government Work Report emphasizes boosting consumption and investment efficiency, which is expected to gradually restore domestic demand [6][50] - In the first half of 2025, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5%, indicating a narrowing decline [50][53] - The automotive sector showed growth, with vehicle and new energy vehicle sales increasing by 10.8% and 36.2%, respectively, in the first half of 2025 [50][58] 3. Cost Side: - Since 2025, international oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices down by 5.73% and 4.56% respectively from the beginning of 2025 [64] - Domestic coal and natural gas prices have also seen a downward trend, with coal prices down by 19.45% compared to the beginning of 2025 [64] 4. Valuation: - As of July 11, 2025, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the basic chemical and petrochemical sectors were 25.37 and 16.74, respectively, indicating they are at historical low levels [70][73]