格林大华期货钢材早盘提示-20250722

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel products in the black building materials sector is moderately bullish in the medium term [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The black market continued to rise rapidly driven by macro factors. The spot prices also increased. The anti - involution policy is gradually strengthening, regarded as Supply - side Reform 2.0. The macro factors drive the industry, leading to a significant increase in the futures market. It is expected that the supply - demand structure will improve under the anti - involution drive. Steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and stainless steel are moderately bullish in the medium term, but short - term callback risks should be watched out for [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, rebar, hot - rolled coil, and stainless steel rose significantly, and the upward trend continued in the night session. In June, the total social electricity consumption increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The second round of coke price increase started. In the first half of this year, the national water conservancy construction investment reached 53.29 billion yuan, with 34,400 water conservancy projects implemented and 18,800 new projects started. From January to June 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume was 24.13 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%; the new order volume was 44.33 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.2%; as of the end of June, the order backlog was 234.54 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.7% [1] Market Logic - The black market continued to rise rapidly driven by macro factors. The anti - involution policy is gradually strengthening. It is expected that the supply - demand structure will improve under the anti - involution drive. The pressure level of rebar moved up to 3297, with an important support level at 3060. The support level of hot - rolled coil is 3200, and the pressure level moved up to 3483. The pressure level of the stainless steel main contract is 13200, and the support level is 12650 [1] Trading Strategy - Rebar and hot - rolled coil show a moderately bullish trend in the medium term under the anti - involution drive, but short - term callback risks should be watched out for [1]