光大期货软商品日报-20250722

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton is expected to be in a volatile pattern. ICE US cotton fell 0.86% to 68.09 cents per pound on Monday, and CF509 decreased 0.8% to 14,185 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 21,871 lots to 558,900 lots. While the low - inventory situation remains unchanged, the upward driving force has weakened. Considering the strong expectation of a new cotton harvest and no obvious improvement in demand, it is difficult for prices to rise continuously. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money call options with higher prices and buy out - of - the - money put options with lower prices [1]. - Sugar is also expected to be volatile. In June, China's imports of syrup and premixes totaled 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. Due to concerns about over - production, raw sugar prices are under pressure. Domestically, sugar producers in the production areas are actively selling to reduce inventory, and the influence of processed sugar is gradually increasing. In the short term, prices lack a clear direction, and in the medium term, they depend on the pace and intensity of imported sugar [1]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 9 - 1 spread is 195 yuan, a decrease of 110 yuan compared to the previous period. The main contract basis is 1,404 yuan, an increase of 166 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,480 yuan per ton, an increase of 56 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,589 yuan per ton, an increase of 81 yuan [2]. - For sugar, the 9 - 1 spread is 170 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan. The main contract basis is 241 yuan, a decrease of 13 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 6,060 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,080 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Market Information - On July 21, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,501, a decrease of 31 from the previous trading day, with 223 valid forecasts [3]. - On July 21, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,480 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,650 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,563 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,803 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On July 21, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.9, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 30.1, a decrease of 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.1, unchanged; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.8, unchanged [3]. - On July 21, the sugar spot prices were 6,060 yuan per ton in Nanning, an increase of 10 yuan, and 6,080 yuan per ton in Liuzhou, unchanged [3]. - On July 21, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 21,437, a decrease of 40 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including cotton and sugar's main contract closing prices, basis, 9 - 1 spreads, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and China's cotton price index, with data sources from Wind and the research institute [6][11][13][15]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. He has won many awards [18]. - Zhang Linglu is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, and has won many honors [19]. - Sun Chengzhen is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and has won relevant honors [20].