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黑色商品日报-20250722
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-07-22 02:39
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various black commodities, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. Most commodities are expected to show a strong or upward - trending performance in the short term due to factors such as policy expectations and market sentiment [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures market rose strongly. The Rb2510 contract closed at 3,224 yuan/ton, up 2.45%. Spot prices also increased, and the national building materials trading volume reached 127,800 tons. With the expected supply - side reform in the steel industry and large - scale infrastructure projects, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to continue its strong performance [1]. - Iron Ore: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures rose to 809 yuan/ton, up 3%. Port spot prices were strong. Global iron ore shipments increased, and iron water production remained high. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports continued to decline. It is expected that iron ore prices will remain in a high - level oscillation in the near future [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures market rose. The Jm2509 contract closed at 1,006 yuan/ton, up 8.64%. Spot prices increased. The upstream coal mine inventory has returned to a reasonable level, and coal mines are resuming production. Steel mills' demand for coke has improved, and it is expected that the short - term coking coal futures market will be strong [1]. - Coke: The coke futures market rose. The J2509 contract closed at 1,603 yuan/ton, up 5.05%. Spot prices were stable. Coke enterprises initiated a second price increase after the first one was implemented. Steel mills' profitability is good, providing room for raw material price increases. The short - term coke futures market is expected to be strong [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price strengthened. The main contract closed at 5,914 yuan/ton, up 1.55%. Spot prices increased in some areas. Although the supply has been increasing for 9 consecutive weeks, the demand has decreased, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level. Driven by market sentiment, the short - term manganese silicon price is expected to be in a strong oscillation [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened. The main contract closed at 5,688 yuan/ton, up 2.46%. Spot prices increased in most areas. The supply has increased slightly, the demand has decreased, and the inventory has declined. Market sentiment has a certain supporting effect on the ferrosilicon price, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate upward [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, including steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as profit and spread data such as rebar futures profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, and cross - variety spreads [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: It shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [7][9][11][14]. - Main Contract Basis: It presents the basis trends of the main contracts of various black commodities over different time periods, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: It shows the spread trends of different contracts of various black commodities, such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][30][31][34][36]. - Cross - variety Contract Spreads: It presents the spread trends of different varieties of black commodities, including the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [39][41][43]. - Rebar Profits: It shows the profit trends of rebar futures, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit from 2020 to 2025 [44][48]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [50][51].