有色商品日报-20250722

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper rose 0.74% to $9,867/ton, SHFE copper rose 0.64% to 79,770 yuan/ton, and domestic spot imports remained slightly in the red. LME inventory decreased by 100 tons to 122,075 tons, Comex inventory increased by 477 tons to 220,775 tons, and SMM's Monday statistics showed that the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 24,700 tons to 118,600 tons compared to last Thursday. Affected by the off - season, consumption was weak, but concerns about rising copper prices prompted some enterprises to replenish stocks in advance. With the weakening of the US dollar, the continuation of US - copper arbitrage, concerns about the implementation of a 50% tariff, and the impact of domestic anti - involution policies, the willingness to short copper prices weakened, and prices remained strong. Be cautious about shorting before late July and early August, and also pay attention to whether domestic anti - involution policies can be implemented [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina trended higher, with overnight AO2509 closing at 3,430 yuan/ton, up 3.56%, and positions increasing by 8,162 lots to 229,700 lots. Shanghai aluminum trended stronger, with overnight AL2509 closing at 20,860 yuan/ton, up 0.55%, and positions increasing by 1,595 lots to 318,500 lots. Aluminum alloy trended stronger, with the overnight main contract AD2511 closing at 20,250 yuan/ton, up 0.6%, and positions decreasing by 267 lots to 9,752 lots. SMM's alumina price rebounded to 3,199 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots widened to 100 yuan/ton. Due to some alumina plants being in the stage of maintenance, the replacement of southwest electrolytic aluminum production capacity, increased raw material stocking, and low warehouse receipt levels, spot circulation tightened, and alumina remained strong. Although the volume of delivery into warehouses may gradually peak, it is difficult to short under the anti - involution effect. New orders for electrolytic aluminum processing decreased, and off - season inventory accumulation started, which was in a game with low near - month warehouse receipts, providing short - term support. The registration of aluminum alloy warehouse receipts is approaching, and the tight supply of scrap aluminum is stronger than the weak off - season demand logic, but the one - sided rebound space is limited. Attention can be paid to the AL - AD spread arbitrage opportunity when the refined - scrap spread narrows [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel rose 1.74% to $15,510/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 1.52% to 123,540 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 300 tons to 207,876 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 551 tons to 22,111 tons. In June 2025, China's refined nickel exports were 10,142.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,831 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 208 tons; this month's net import of refined nickel was 6,867.321 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.74% and a year - on - year increase of 26.20%. The weekly nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was at a three - year low, and the tender price was 900 yuan/nickel point; nickel salt transactions were calm, and prices declined slightly. For stainless steel, cost support weakened, weekly inventory decreased, and supply in July decreased slightly month - on - month, and the supply - demand pattern may be gradually repaired. For primary nickel, domestic weekly inventory increased month - on - month, and market pressure became apparent. Short - term prices will still fluctuate, but volatility may increase, with market sentiment, overseas policies, and fundamentals in a game [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - copper increased from 78,610 yuan/ton on July 18 to 79,510 yuan/ton on July 21, with a rise of 900 yuan/ton. The premium of flat - copper increased by 50 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread increased by 405 yuan/ton. The prices of oxygen - free and low - oxygen copper rods in Shanghai increased by 1,000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The total inventory increased by 3,094 tons, and the social inventory (domestic + bonded area) decreased by 0.4 million tons [3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River increased by 130 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton. The price of lead concentrate in some regions increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the processing fee remained unchanged. The inventory increased by 7,186 tons [3]. - Aluminum: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased by 220 yuan/ton and 190 yuan/ton respectively. The premium of aluminum decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China increased by 100 yuan/ton. The total inventory increased by 5,625 tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 15,000 tons [4]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 1,400 yuan/ton, and the price difference between Jinchuan nickel and Wuxi increased by 250 yuan/ton. The price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged. The nickel inventory increased by 230 tons, and the stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [4]. - Zinc: The main settlement price increased by 2.2%, and the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased by 500 yuan/ton. The domestic and imported zinc premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The inventory increased by 793 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [5]. - Tin: The main settlement price increased by 0.6%, and the SMM spot price increased by 1,700 yuan/ton. The price of 60% and 40% tin concentrate decreased by 1,700 yuan/ton. The inventory increased by 51 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventory for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - Smelting Profit: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. 3.3 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the awards for the best metal industry futures research team of Futures Daily & Securities Times in the 15th and 16th sessions and the title of excellent non - ferrous metal industry team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [47]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [47]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [48].