Guoxin Securities·2025-07-22 02:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - Instant retail is defined as a retail format that meets local immediate demand through online ordering and offline fulfillment, with a market size projected to reach 780 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46% over the past five years [2][17] - The market is expected to exceed 3 trillion yuan by 2030, with a penetration rate in online retail increasing from 6% to 15.7% [35][38] - The competition in instant retail is primarily between platforms and self-operated models, with platforms holding a market share of 60%-70%, and Meituan leading the market [2][47] Summary by Sections 01 Instant Retail: Local Supply and Immediate Fulfillment - Instant retail is characterized by its ability to fulfill local demand quickly, leveraging local retail supply [6][8] - The development of instant retail has accelerated due to the rise of smartphones and location-based services, leading to various business models [8] 02 Competitive Landscape: Fulfillment as the Core Barrier - The competitive landscape is defined by short-term competition for user traffic and long-term competition for supply capabilities [2][3] - Fulfillment capability is identified as a long-term competitive barrier, with current competition focused on subsidies and user acquisition [2] 03 Analysis of Instant Retail Platforms - The analysis covers organizational efficiency, user growth driven by subsidies, supply capabilities, and fulfillment efficiency [2][3] - Meituan has a significant advantage in fulfillment due to its established delivery network and operational scale [2] 04 Profit Impact Assessment for Meituan, Alibaba, and JD - Projections indicate that Meituan's flash purchase gross transaction value (GTV) could reach approximately 1.1 trillion yuan by 2030, contributing 18.6 billion yuan in profit [3] - Alibaba's cross-selling in food delivery and instant retail is expected to generate close to 1 trillion yuan in GMV, but with limited profit contribution [3] 05 Investment Recommendations - The essence of retail competition is efficiency, with a focus on operational capabilities and supply chain management [3] - Meituan is expected to maintain its leading position in the instant retail market due to its organizational capabilities and user engagement strategies [3]