金融期货早班车-20250722

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - Stock Index: On July 21, the four major A-share stock indexes were all strong. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.72% to close at 3,559.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.86% to close at 11,007.49 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.87% to close at 2,296.88 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.04% to close at 1,007.89 points. Market turnover was 1.7271 trillion yuan, an increase of 133.8 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, building materials (+6.06%), building decoration (+3.79%), and steel (+3.44%) led the gains; banks (-0.77%), composites (-0.34%), and computers (-0.31%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IC>IM>IF>IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4,002/121/1,291 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -9, -127, -46, and 18.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +12.6, -0.6, -8.2, and -3.8 billion yuan respectively [1]. - Stock Index Futures Basis: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 149.06, 105.71, 20.81, and 1.04 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -12.52%, -9.53%, -2.83%, and -0.21% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 23%, 16%, 32%, and 45% respectively [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On July 21, the yields of treasury bond futures rose across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.363, up 1.19 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.513, up 1.69 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.613, up 1.21 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 1.958, up 2.78 bps [2]. - Cash Bonds: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of +1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.023, and an IRR of 1.63%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of +1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.031, and an IRR of 1.68%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250007.IB, with a yield change of +1.8 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.041, and an IRR of 1.75%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +2.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.033, and an IRR of 1.33% [2]. - Funding Situation: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 170.7 billion yuan and withdrew 226.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan [2]. 2. Trading Strategies - Stock Index Futures: In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: It is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies for medium - and long - term investors [2]. 3. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the real - estate market has recently contracted in terms of prosperity, while the manufacturing industry has seen a recovery in prosperity as the industrial added value in June exceeded the same period [11]. 4. Tables and Figures - Table 1: Shows the performance of stock index futures and spot markets, including details such as code, name, price change percentage, current price, price change, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily position change, settlement price, basis, and annualized basis yield [6]. - Table 2: Displays the performance of treasury bond futures and spot markets, including information on code, name, price change percentage, current price, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily position change, settlement price, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rate [7]. - Table 3: Presents the changes in the short - end funding rate market, including SHIBOR overnight, DR001, SHIBOR one - week, and DR007 rates compared with yesterday, one week ago, and one month ago [11]. - Figure 1: Illustrates the term structure of treasury bond spot prices [8][9]. - Figure 2: Tracks domestic medium - level economic data, based on the comparison of medium - level data in each module with the same period in the past five years (year - on - year month - on - month), scored according to the degree of change [12][13].