南华期货铜风险管理日报-20250722

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The positive macro - expectations brought by anti - involution have pushed up short - term copper prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,700 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.70%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 23.0% [2]. 3.2 Copper Risk Management Suggestions - Inventory Management: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when the volatility is relatively stable [2]. - Raw Material Management: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Factors Affecting Copper Prices - Likely Factors: Sino - US tariff policy easing, lower LME inventory levels, the US dollar index hovering at a low level, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4]. - Negative Factors: Tariff policy fluctuations, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [5]. 3.4 Nanhua's View on Copper Price Trends - Anti - involution affects the entire non - ferrous metal sector. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term, but there are hidden risks in the medium - term rise. The increase in copper prices has not significantly driven up positions, and there is no need for large - scale capacity optimization on the supply side [6]. 3.5 Copper Futures and Spot Data - Futures Data: The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 79,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Shanghai copper continuous - one contract is 79,770 yuan/ton (up 1,330 yuan, 1.7%), the Shanghai copper continuous - three contract is 79,750 yuan/ton (unchanged), the LME copper 3M is 9,794.5 US dollars/ton (up 116.5 US dollars, 1.2%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15 (down 0.03, - 0.37%) [7]. - Spot Data: The prices of various copper spots have increased. For example, Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 copper is 79,555 yuan/ton (up 895 yuan, 1.14%), and the price increases of other spots range from 0.71% to 1.33%. The spot premiums have also increased, with the increase ranging from 9.09% to 35.29% [10]. 3.6 Copper Scrap Spread and Warehouse Receipts - Scrap Spread: The current scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,478.51 yuan/ton (up 513.08 yuan, 53.15%), and the reasonable scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,496.7 yuan/ton (up 10.45 yuan, 0.7%) [13]. - Warehouse Receipts: The Shanghai copper warehouse receipts and international copper warehouse receipts have decreased. For example, the total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 38,239 tons (down 3,900 tons, - 9.26%), and the total international copper warehouse receipts are 4,667 tons (down 2,708 tons, - 36.72%) [16]. 3.7 Copper Inventory Data - LME Inventory: The total LME copper inventory is 122,075 tons (down 100 tons, - 0.08%), with different changes in different regions. The registered warehouse receipts are 108,100 tons (down 2,850 tons, - 2.57%), and the cancelled warehouse receipts are 14,075 tons (up 2,875 tons, 25.67%) [18]. - COMEX Inventory: The total COMEX copper inventory is 242,837 tons (up 8,633 tons, 3.69%) [21]. 3.8 Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit is - 127.28 yuan/ton (down 16.74 yuan, - 11.62%), and the copper concentrate TC is - 43.17 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [22].