新能源及有色金属日报：强宏观弱需求，现货升水快速走弱-20250722

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - Strong macro and weak demand lead to a rapid decline in spot premiums. Although the downstream开工率 shows relative resilience and overall consumption is not bad, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, resulting in a rapid decline in spot premiums in the spot market, which have now generally turned into discounts. The overseas inventory has the expectation of delivery risk, and the domestic social inventory shows a trend of accumulation, which is expected to remain unchanged in the second half of the year. After the emotional disturbance, the pattern of oversupply may re - dominate the price trend [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is $4.75/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 500 yuan/ton to 22,820 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the spot premium decreased by 55 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 540 yuan/ton to 22,820 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 500 yuan/ton to 22,780 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 55 yuan/ton to - 105 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On July 21, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,420 yuan/ton and closed at 22,925 yuan/ton, up 625 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 251,405 lots, an increase of 100,339 lots from the previous trading day. The positions were 133,314 lots, an increase of 17,346 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 22,945 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 22,415 yuan/ton [1] - Inventory: As of July 21, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 92,700 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the same period last week. As of July 21, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 118,225 tons, a decrease of 875 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - In the spot market, due to the policy - driven rise in absolute prices and weak consumption, the spot premium further declined. On the cost side, the imported ore TC continues to rise, and the smelting profit is maintained, with the expectation of an increase in supply remaining unchanged. Smelters have sufficient raw material reserves and are not very enthusiastic about purchasing from the ore end. On the consumption side, although the downstream开工率 shows relative resilience, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]