装置整改预期拉动盘面上涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The theme of the chemical sector recently is the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years, with the capacity of such plants for pure benzene and styrene accounting for 18% and 8% respectively, and subsequent progress should be monitored [3] - BZ futures still maintain a certain premium, there is still pressure on pure benzene port inventory during the same period. The short - term demand of BZ downstream is okay, but the high - start CPL and styrene start to decline. In terms of supply, the pressure of South Korea's exports to China remains, and domestic production start is still high, with the pure benzene processing fee continuing to consolidate weakly [3] - For styrene, port inventory is rising rapidly. Although domestic EB start has declined slightly, it is still at a relatively high level. In terms of demand, EPS start has rebounded, but the inventory pressure of the three major hard rubbers persists, which may drag down subsequent start [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Figures include pure benzene's main basis and main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts; EB's main contract trend & basis, main contract basis, and spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts [8][11][14] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures involve naphtha processing fee, difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, non - integrated production profit of styrene, differences between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and FOB South Korea, FOB US Gulf and CFR China, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China, and import profits of pure benzene and styrene [19][21][31] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show pure benzene's East China port inventory and operating rate; styrene's East China port inventory, operating rate, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [38][40][43] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Figures cover EPS operating rate and production profit, PS operating rate and production profit, ABS operating rate and production profit [51][55][56] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Figures include operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 conventional spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [59][71][82] Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards pure benzene, and short - hedge styrene on rallies [4] - Basis and Inter - Period: Do reverse spreads on the near - term BZ paper cargo against the distant BZ2603 futures on rallies; do reverse spreads on the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period [4] - Cross - Variety: Shrink the EB - BZ spread on rallies [4]