宏观情绪提振，氯碱盘面大幅上涨

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The PVC market has seen a significant rise in the futures market due to the boost in macro - sentiment, but its fundamentals remain weak with high supply pressure, weak domestic demand, and increasing inventory. The policy's impact on the PVC capacity structure is expected to be limited [3]. - The caustic soda futures price has risen significantly due to the assessment of old petrochemical and chemical industry equipment and the weakening of liquid chlorine prices. However, the inventory pressure is expected to increase, and the policy's impact on the capacity structure may be limited [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5,118 yuan/ton (+181), the East China basis is - 118 yuan/ton (-31), and the South China basis is - 118 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5,000 yuan/ton (+150), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5,000 yuan/ton (+180) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 535 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton (+5), the calcium carbide profit is 112 yuan/ton (+5), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 315 yuan/ton (+130), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 595 yuan/ton (+26), and the PVC export profit is - 4.8 dollars/ton (+0.4) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory is 36.8 tons (-1.4), the social PVC inventory is 41.1 tons (+1.8), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 77.52% (+0.59%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 68.31% (-1.92%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 74.97% (-0.10%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.6 tons (+0.6) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,569 yuan/ton (+100), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 25 yuan/ton (-131) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton (-10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,370 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,603 yuan/ton (-31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 579.5 yuan/ton (-111.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 507.53 yuan/ton (+81.75), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,418.33 yuan/ton (+80.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 38.39 tons (+0.96), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.40 tons (+0.04), and the caustic soda operation rate is 82.60% (+2.20%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operation rate is 83.61% (+0.33%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 58.89% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 84.55% (+6.75%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The release of the ten - key industry stable growth work plan has boosted the macro - sentiment, leading to a significant rise in the PVC futures market. However, the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The supply pressure is high, domestic demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. The policy's impact on the capacity structure is expected to be limited [3]. Caustic Soda - The assessment of old petrochemical and chemical industry equipment and the weakening of liquid chlorine prices have boosted the caustic soda futures price. The supply is increasing, the demand from the main downstream is rising, but the non - aluminum demand is weak. The inventory pressure is expected to increase, and the policy's impact on the capacity structure may be limited [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Neutral; in the short term, PVC may fluctuate strongly due to the boost in macro - sentiment. - Inter - delivery spread: Go for reverse arbitrage when the V09 - 01 spread is high [4]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Neutral; the cost support of caustic soda is strengthening due to the further weakening of liquid chlorine. The short - term futures market is trading on the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity, but the actual impact on the capacity structure may be limited [5].