现货价格整体上涨，豆粕维持震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current growth of the new - season US soybeans is good, with the improvement of the soybean good - to - excellent rate exceeding expectations and surpassing last year's level and historical average. The good weather in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to continue, and despite a decline in the sown area, high yields are likely to lead to a bountiful harvest. In China, oil mills are in a state of inventory accumulation, while the aquaculture industry is in a seasonal consumption off - peak. The overall supply is relatively loose, and spot prices remain stable. However, due to macro - sentiment, the soybean meal futures prices rose last week. Future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and the growth of new - season US soybeans, as tariff policies will significantly affect prices [3] - In the domestic corn market, after a wave of concentrated grain sales in the main producing areas, the trade inventory has decreased, and the available grain in circulation has become scarcer. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventories and purchase on - demand, while deep - processing enterprises also adjust their quotes slightly when purchasing as needed. The decreasing成交 rate of imported corn auctions has weakened its impact on market prices [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3069 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (+0.43%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2727 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.18%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M09 - 99, down 13 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2890 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M09 - 179, down 3; in Guangdong, it was 2860 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M09 - 209, down 13. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2720 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM09 - 7, up 5 [1] 3.1.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2320 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.26%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2664 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.23%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of C09 + 0, down 6; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of CS09 + 76, down 6 [4] 3.2 Recent Market News - Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters expects soybean exports in July 2025 to be 12.19 million tons, higher than the previous estimate but lower than June's exports. The expected annual exports in 2025 are 110 million tons, an increase of about 13 million tons year - on - year, exceeding the 2023 record [2] - The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts that from July 22 - 26, rainfall in the northern part of the US soybean - producing areas will be slightly higher than normal, while in some southern states, it will be close to or slightly below normal [2] - As of July 16, the 2024/25 Argentine corn harvest progress was 78.9%, with an average yield of 7.39 tons per hectare, and a cumulative harvest of 40.4 million tons [4] 3.3 Market Analysis - For soybean meal, the good growth of new - season US soybeans, combined with favorable weather forecasts, is likely to result in a bumper harvest. In China, the supply is loose due to oil - mill inventory accumulation and weak demand in the aquaculture off - season. The futures price increase was influenced by macro - sentiment. Policy changes and new - season soybean growth are key factors affecting prices [3] - For corn, the reduction of available grain in circulation in the domestic market is due to concentrated sales. Feed and deep - processing enterprises purchase on - demand, and the weakening impact of imported corn auctions on prices [5] 3.4 Strategies - The strategy for both soybean meal and corn is cautiously bearish [4][6]