新能源及有色金属日报：氧化铝现货平稳，但仓单问题仍存担忧-20250722

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [7] - Alumina: Neutral [7] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The seasonal off - peak season for electrolytic aluminum is evident, with downstream开工率 declining and processing fees facing losses. However, the inventory accumulation is not smooth, and long - term supply is restricted while consumption has stable growth [3]. - The alumina supply is slightly in surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating. Although the spot market doesn't show surplus and the price is short - term strong, the long - term surplus expectation remains unchanged [5]. - The aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - peak season, with the price following the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and there are cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminum - Spot: On July 21, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,890 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,720 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,860 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures: On July 21, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 20,560 yuan/ton, closed at 20,840 yuan/ton, up 335 yuan/ton (1.63% increase) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 220,654 lots, an increase of 91,618 lots, and the position was 316,907 lots, an increase of 34,252 lots [1]. - Inventory: As of July 21, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 498,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 434,425 tons, an increase of 3,725 tons from the previous day [1]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Spot: On July 21, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,185 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,160 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,265 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - Futures: On July 21, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 3,161 yuan/ton, closed at 3,386 yuan/ton, up 262 yuan/ton (8.39% increase) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 993,037 lots, an increase of 657,075 lots, and the position was 221,548 lots, an increase of 11,189 lots [2]. 3.1.3 Aluminum Alloy - Price: On July 19, 2025, the Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price was 15,200 yuan/ton, the mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 15,500 yuan/ton, and the ADC12 Baotai quotation was 19,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - Inventory: The aluminum alloy social inventory was 37,200 tons, a weekly increase of 5,800 tons; the in - factory inventory was 63,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 7,000 tons; the total inventory was 101,100 tons, a weekly decrease of 1,200 tons [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - Seasonal off - peak season: The downstream开工率 has declined, and the production of aluminum rods and aluminum plates, strips, and foils has decreased significantly. The social inventory shows a slight accumulation trend, but it's not smooth, and if the inventory doesn't exceed 600,000 tons, it's considered a bullish factor [3]. - Long - term: Supply is restricted while consumption has stable growth. The policy of eliminating backward production capacity has no impact on the supply side, but the actual impact on the consumption side needs attention [3]. 3.2.2 Alumina - Spot market: On Friday, there were three transactions in the north totaling 19,000 tons, and on Monday, a northwest aluminum plant tendered for 10,000 tons of alumina, with the delivered price 50 - 60 yuan/ton lower than the previous transaction [4][5]. - Supply - demand balance: The supply is slightly in surplus, and the inventory accumulation is accelerating, but the spot market doesn't show surplus, and the price is short - term strong. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and the 08 and 09 contracts are still adding positions, with the 09 contract having a high position [5]. 3.2.3 Aluminum Alloy - Consumption off - peak season: The price follows the aluminum price, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and there are cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [6]. 3.3 Strategy 3.3.1 Single - side - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] 3.3.2 Arbitrage - SHFE aluminum positive spread, long AD11 and short AL11 [7]